Wednesday, November 20, 2024
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Author: Tridivesh Singh Maini

Trump 2.0 India tariff
EconomyEditor's PickWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Trump 2.0 and India: Trumping Tariff Tensions, Transactionalism Amidst Geopolitical Rebalancing

It is tough to make any predictions regarding Trump 2.0. While some commentators believe that his policies will be as disruptionist as in his previous stint, others are of the opinion that he may be transactional but less unpredictable. During the presidential campaign, Trump had said that he would impose tariffs on countries which are trading in non-dollar currencies. It remains to be seen if he goes ahead with such measures given that several countries with close links to the US, including India, have been favouring de-dollarisation. It also remains to be seen how Trump 2.0 would perceive the Chabahar project given the current turmoil in the Middle East.

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Smog Punjab India-Pakistan
EconomyPoliticsWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Smog Diplomacy, Punjab Centrality: India-Pakistan Thawing Relations May Address Punjab Woes

Chief Minister of Pakistan Punjab, Maryam Nawaz Sharif, recently underscored the need for greater cooperation between both Punjabs to counter the challenge of smog. Earlier this year, while speaking to Sikh pilgrims from India at Kartarpur Sahib, she had underscored the importance of ‘Punjabiyat’. The Punjabs on both sides have played an important role in people-to-people, cultural as well as economic linkages between both countries. Since 2019, when trade links between India and Pakistan, via the Wagah-Attari land crossing, were discontinued, there have been significant job losses resulting in a major setback to the border districts of Punjab (India). Maryam Nawaz’s remarks have raised hopes of resumption of engagement – albeit incremental – between both countries via the Punjabs.

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Harris Trump USA World Order
PoliticsWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Harris vs Trump: The Battle for USA Amidst a Changing World Order

The November 5 US elections is likely to be a close one and could swing either way. The US foreign policy is likely to be driven by ground realities and will remain the same on fundamental issues. Going by his election campaign and his previous tenure as President, Donald Trump could be more isolationist – especially on economic issues. Unlike Donald Trump, Kamala Harris is unlikely to ruffle feathers with allies and partners over economic issues, though she could be more vocal on issues of human rights and freedoms even vis-à-vis friendly countries.

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India Oman FTA Gulf
PoliticsWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

FTA with Oman Likely: Catapulting Gulf-India Synergies

The India-Oman CEPA will give a significant boost to bilateral trade between both countries. It will help Oman achieve its objective of reducing its dependence upon oil. The Gulf nation, which is strategically located near the oil transit point of the Strait of Hormuz, is especially important for Indian businesses — since they can set up manufacturing facilities and leverage Oman’s location and other advantages for exports to other West Asian nations and Europe.

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Riyadh Active Neutrality USA
Editor's PickPoliticsWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Riyadh’s ‘Active Neutrality’ at Play: SCO, OPEC+ and Proposed Defence Deal with USA

In March 2023, Riyadh entered the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a dialogue partner. Saudi Arabia had also signed a Beijing-mediated agreement with Iran to resume diplomatic ties. The Gulf nation has played an important part along with Russia in the OPEC+ cuts in oil production much to the displeasure of Washington DC. Yet, in recent days, Saudi Arabia has been pushing for getting a defence pact with the US ratified before the US election of 2024.

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BJP Congress 2023 elections
Editor's PickIndiaPolitics
Tridivesh Singh Maini

BJP drubs Congress in Hindi Heartland, Congress Consolidates in the Peninsula: The Larger Trends in India’s Electoral Politics post-2023 Assembly Elections

National issues and leadership cannot be relegated totally to the sidelines in assembly elections, even though it is not possible to win state elections without strong regional leaders. What is clear from the election results of the MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana is that welfare schemes, which often draw strong criticism from certain commentators, strike a chord with the voter. All political outfits have also begun to focus on welfare schemes specifically targeted at women.

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Biden Trump 2024 geopolitics
Editor's PickPoliticsWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Biden Vs Trump 2024: The Geopolitics of Russia-Ukraine & Israel-Hamas in USA’s Politics

A recent poll by The New York Times and Siena College found former President Donald Trump leading over President Joe Biden in five key swing states for a potential 2024 presidential election match-up. The poll suggests Biden is losing support among young and black voters, and despite improvements in economic indicators, voters appear pessimistic about the US economy. Trump’s potential win could have significant implications for the ongoing geopolitical conflicts in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East.

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Chinese Tehran Israel-Palestine Tensions
Editor's PickWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

The Chinese Potential: Close Ties with Tehran, Dialing Down Israel-Palestine Tensions

Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, urges Israel to respect international humanitarian law, protect civilians, and ensure Chinese interests in Israel. Amid tensions following Hamas’s multi-pronged attack, China criticizes the killing of civilians but avoids condemning Hamas. As the conflict escalates, upcoming meetings between Wang Yi and US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, could present opportunities for dialogue. Despite increasing aggression from Iran, China’s influence in the Middle East could potentially help mitigate the situation.

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Saudi Swing Washington Beijing
PoliticsWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Saudi Arabia’s Changing Foreign Policy: Becoming a ‘Swing State’ or Just a Swing from Washington to Beijing Camp?

Saudi Arabia is looking to enhance its strategic and economic clout globally. Riyadh has been showing interest in China-dominated organizations SCO and BRICS. Saudi has already joined SCO as a dialogue partner and has applied for membership in BRICS. However, its relationship with US is still economically and strategically important. US has a strong military presence in Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries. Further, Saudi Arabia’s economic and strategic interests on key issues could diverge from both Beijing and Moscow.

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Global Indian Students Education
EducationWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

The Future of India’s Future: Increasing Global Education Opportunities for Indian Students

In recent years, several changes have taken place in the Indian and global landscape, which students seeking to pursue higher education overseas, as well as in India cannot ignore. Some overseas universities are likely to set up campuses in India. The West is seeking to attract more Indian students as a result of strained ties with China. In the imminent future, there will be many more joint programs between Indian institutions and overseas educational institutions. And most importantly, the focus will now be on technological skills and languages and not degrees. It is important for parents also to bring about a change in mindset.

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US China Spy Ukraine
Editor's PickPoliticsWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Ukraine Conflict, ‘Spy Balloon’ and Evolving US-China Relationship

In recent weeks, tensions between Beijing and Washington seem to have escalated after the incident of an ‘alleged’ Chinese spy balloon being spotted in US airspace. The Biden Administration may not want ties with China to deteriorate further and it may also seek to find common ground on important global issues. It is likely however to continue with its tough economic stance vis-à-vis China in the run-up to the 2024 US presidential election. The important factors which will influence the trajectory of the Washington-Beijing relationship are the course of the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s stance on the same as well as China’s approach towards Taiwan.

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Economic Linkages in South Asia
EconomyEditor's PickWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Vicious Cycle of Economic Slowdown in South Asia

Sri Lanka and Pakistan are dealing with serious economic crises. Apart from serious domestic issues like shortage of essential commodities, and power cuts, both countries have meagre foreign exchange reserves. The excessive dependence on China is the main reason for the increasing debt trap. Both countries also had to seek International Monetary Fund (IMF) assistance despite domestic opposition against the conditionalities imposed by the IMF. It is important for South Asian countries to work towards more robust economic linkages within the region and to shed dependence upon external assistance. 

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Protectionist UK Indian Students
Editor's PickEducationPoliticsWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Protectionist UK Restricting Indian Students May Backfire

Limiting the number of students from India or changing rules pertaining to the graduate post-study work visa will make the United Kingdom a less attractive destination for higher education for Indian students. The UK needs to understand that Indian students contribute significantly to the UK economy, not just in the form of tuition fees, but also through their talent and skills. 

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Odisha sports tourism paradiplomacy
Editor's PickIndiaSports
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Odisha: A Guiding Light for Sports Tourism and Paradiplomacy

Hosting the FIH Hockey Men’s World Cup 2023, Odisha is the first state in India to host the event for the second time in a row. This is an important feat and highlights the fact that Odisha — along with Punjab — has emerged as a key nursery for Indian hockey. Odisha’s focus on sports, especially hockey, also shows that every state should create its own template for economic prosperity and give a boost to tourism. Its success in hockey, where all stakeholders have worked in harmony, is important not just from the dimension of sports but also economy and para-diplomacy. Other states should seek to emulate its success!

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G20 Dharamshala Northeast Tourism
CultureIndiaWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

G20, Dharamshala Declaration and Northeast: The Trident to Boost Incredible India’s Tourism

There is no doubt that India’s Presidency of the G20 is an important opportunity for India to give a strong boost to its tourism sector. This will give a much-needed fillip to the country’s hospitality industry and the economy. Showcasing cities which do not get the attention they deserve and a greater focus on the North-Eastern region, by holding meetings there, is a welcome step.

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CultureEditor's PickIndiaSocietyWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

North-East Festival: A Roadmap To Domestic And Global Ties

North-East Festival is a festival that celebrates the beauty, diversity, and integrity of North-East India. The USP of this festival is the way in which we seamlessly integrate elements of social cohesion, cultural heritage, and economic welfare, making them an immersive experience for all. This also seeks to give a fillip to ties between North Eastern India and the increasingly important ASEAN region. The festival is important for a number of reasons. First, it highlights aspects of the region’s culture and economy that residents in other parts of India are not familiar with.  Second, it can give a boost to tourism in the region. Third, it can open up new horizons for entrepreneurs from North Eastern India, and the rest of the country.

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Australia China Relationship Wong
PoliticsWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Australia-China Bilateral Relationship: Penny Wong’s Visit to Beijing

The visit of the Australian Foreign Minister, Penny Wong, to China could pave the way for reducing tensions between both countries, though it would be unrealistic to expect substantial progress in the short run. Any thaw between both countries will require a significant course correction in Xi Jinping’s foreign policy, which so far has been fundamentally different from that of his predecessors. 

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The New Geopolitics of Global Education
Editor's PickEducationWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

The New Geopolitics Of Global Education

Geopolitical issues have affected the people-to-people links and higher education adversely. While the UK, like other developed countries in the West, is keen to attract talented professionals as well as students who could contribute positively towards its economy, it is mooting the idea of restricting the inflow of international students who get admitted into ‘low-quality degrees’, and also bring in their dependents through the student visa route. On the other hand, Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy makes a clear reference to strengthening people-to-people contact with different parts of Asia and seeks to enhance Canada’s international student program with permanent residence and job opportunities for students from the Indo-Pacific.

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China West Golden Era
PoliticsWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

China and West Cooperation: Is the Golden Era Over?

It is important that China and the West ensure that their relations do not slide further. It is important for both sides to refrain from a zero-sum approach and that they cooperate on important global issues. At the same time, countries wary of China’s increasingly aggressive behaviour, under the leadership of Xi Jinping, need to come up with a cohesive strategic and economic vision to counter the same.

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ASEAN Great Power Politics
PoliticsWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

ASEAN’s Foreign Policy: Managing The Great Power Politics

ASEAN is likely to be the driver of economic growth in the imminent future. While a number of ASEAN member states have stated that they do not subscribe to the US vision of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific, they are also aware of China’s increasingly expansionist tendencies and its aggressive stance over the South China Sea Issue. While ASEAN has numerous opportunities, it needs to ensure that differences within the bloc do not impact its functioning.

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Pakistan China USA De-hyphenation
PoliticsWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Pakistan’s China-USA Policy: De-hyphenation or Zero Sum?

In order to put its economy back on the rails, Pakistan needs to maintain good relations not just with China, but also put its bilateral ties with the US back on the rails. Given the deterioration in Washington-Beijing ties, it remains to be seen if Islamabad can manage the same. While Pakistan, like many other countries, has said that it does not want to be pushed into making any choices, it remains to be seen whether this will be possible in the changing geopolitical landscape.

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Odisha ASEAN Connect Paradiplomacy
BusinessPoliticsPublic PolicyWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

The Rise of Paradiplomacy: Harnessing Odisha’s ASEAN Connect to Attract Investment

There has been a paradigm shift in practices of wooing investors for boosting the economy. States have been attempting through special summits. Indonesia and Odisha have shared historical links. Every year in November, the festival of ‘Bali Yatra’ celebrated commemorates the maritime history of Odisha and Bali (Indonesia). In this regard, India’s outreach and connectivity vis-à-vis ASEAN should focus on harnessing the historical linkages and geographical advantages which states possess with respect to the ASEAN region.

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Saudi Arabia UAE Balancing
Editor's PickPoliticsWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Saudi Arabia and UAE: Playing the Balancing Act

Two Gulf countries – Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) – have re-oriented their external relations significantly in recent years. The improvement in ties between both these Gulf countries, especially UAE, and Israel is a strong reiteration of the same. UAE along with Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan normalised ties with Israel via the Abraham accords signed in 2020. Even at a global level, not just the Middle East, both Saudi Arabia and UAE are trying to re-position their foreign policy. One important change has been the strengthening of UAE-China and Saudi Arabia-China relations, much to the discomfort of the US.

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Iran and Venezuela on Cooperation Road
Editor's Pick
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Iran and Venezuela on Cooperation Road

Iran and Venezuela recently signed a 20-year agreement that sought to strengthen cooperation in a number of areas – though the focus of the agreement is on bolstering ties in the finance and energy sectors.  The agreement will be closely watched by the West since both countries have been facing US sanctions and have repeatedly lashed out at western imperialism. While Venezuela and Iran share close ties with Russia and China, the agreement sends a strong message that the countries that are part of the Russia-China camp need to have an independent foreign policy and economic vision.

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Tightrope for Pakistan with USA and China
PoliticsWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Blinken-Zardari Meet: A Tightrope for Pakistan with USA and China

During the May 18 meeting, both Blinken and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari focused on strengthening not just US-Pakistan security ties but also economic linkages. The US could nudge IMF towards imposing less stringent conditionalities on Pakistan in order to prevent political instability. The US remains an important destination for Pakistani exports and this is one of the reasons why the business community in Pakistan, along with the Pakistan army as well as the political class, was not particularly comfortable with former PM Imran Khan’s rhetoric against the West, in general, and the US, in particular. There is a growing realization in Pakistan that while ties with Beijing may be important, it can not afford to allow relations with the US to deteriorate any further.

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Pakistan Economy Political Turmoil
Editor's PickWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Political Turmoil and Strained Ties with the West: A Double Whammy for Pakistan’s Economy

Apart from Pakistan’s army and opposition political outfits, the business lobbies in Pakistan have been flagging the point that strained ties with the US and the EU will have an adverse impact on Pakistan’s economy. While the Pakistan Army Chief, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, had alluded to the importance of Pakistan’s ties with the US in his address on April 2, 2022, Pakistan’s business has expressed its apprehensions with regard to the current political situation and the potential souring of ties with the West, in general, and the US, in particular. The current economic crisis in Sri Lanka also underscores the pitfalls of being excessively dependent upon China and the need for an astute foreign policy.

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Russia-Ukraine Crisis_ A Big Boost for Iran
PoliticsWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Russia-Ukraine Crisis: A Big Boost for Iranian Economy?

While analysts focus on wrangling between great powers, the economic and geopolitical relevance of countries like Iran often gets relegated to the sidelines. The revival of the JCPOA, and closer economic ties between Tehran and the West, especially the purchase of Iranian oil by the US and other western countries, could actually result in Tehran re-orienting its foreign policy. If Iran and other signatories do manage to come up with an agreement, Iran’s sagging economy could get a big boost.

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