India’s Neighbourhood: Recalibration, Renewed Outreach Amidst Indo-China Geopolitics

According to most commentators, bilateral meetings between Jaishankar and Pakistani officials are unlikely during former’s proposed Pakistan visit for SCO meeting, yet many believe that Jaishankar’s visit could pave the way for reducing tensions between both countries to some extent. In recent months, the Muizzu administration has sought to put its ties with India back on track as Maldives faces multiple economic challenges. Countries in the neighbourhood should seek to benefit from better relations with India and not get trapped in geopolitical rivalries. It is important to view ties between India’s neighbourhoods from a nuanced perspective and not remain stuck in binaries.

There is a lot of anticipation in sections of the Indian commentariat concerning External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad (October 15-16, 2024) in connection with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) summit-level meeting – especially because this is the first visit by an Indian Foreign Minister to Islamabad since late Sushma Swaraj’s visit in December 2015 in connection with the Heart of Asia Conference on Afghanistan. Jaishankar has emphatically stated the fact that while there will be a lot of media interest in his Pakistan visit, it is purely in connection with the SCO and that the decision to attend the SCO Summit does not in any way reflect a revision in India’s stance towards the boycott of SAARC or bilateral ties with Pakistan.

According to most commentators, bilateral meetings between Jaishankar and Pakistani officials are unlikely, yet many believe that Jaishankar’s visit could pave the way for reducing tensions between both countries to some extent. It is always good to have realistic expectations in the context of India-Pakistan ties.

Some other important developments have taken place which highlight the complexities of New Delhi’s relations with its immediate neighbours.

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Muizzu’s India Visit

Maldivian President’s India visit

First, Maldivian President Mohammed Muizzu was in India (October 6-10, 2024) (Muizzu had visited India earlier this year, too, for PM Narendra Modi’s swearing-in ceremony in June 2024). Apart from New Delhi, where Muizzu met with President Droupadi Murmu, PM Modi and other senior officials, the Maldivian President also visited Mumbai and Bengaluru.

Deterioration in ties between India and Maldives in January 2024

Earlier this year, ties between Maldives and India had gone downhill for several reasons. First, the Maldivian President’s first overseas visit was to China (it was argued, that Muizzu wanted to “snub” India). Second, while alluding to India, the Maldivian President said that no country could “bully” the Maldives. Third, in January 2024 the Maldivian President ordered the withdrawal of Indian military personnel from Maldives by May 2024 (India withdrew its soldiers from Maldives before the deadline of May 10, 2024, set by Muizzu).  As a result of tensions between both countries, there was a reduction in the number of Indian tourists visiting the South Asian archipelagic nation. In the first quarter of 2024, there was a dip of over 40% in Indians visiting Maldives.

Maldivian President seeking to put ties back on track

In recent months, the Muizzu administration has sought to put ties back on track as the island nation faces multiple economic challenges. In July 2024, Muizzu thanked both China and India for their assistance in addressing the South Asian island nation’s debt crisis. During a meeting with Indian External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar the Maldivian President again thanked India for its assistance.

The global credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded Maldives’ credit rating in September 2024. According to Moody’s: “(foreign) reserves remain significantly below the government’s external debt service of around $600m in 2025 and over $1bn in 2026”.

Modi met with Muizzu on October 7, 2024, and India decided to extend support in the form of INR 30 billion and USD 400 million as part of a bilateral currency swap agreement. The Maldivian President thanked India for its support and said: “I would like to thank Prime Minister Modi, the government and the people of India for the generous assistance and cooperation extended to the Maldives over the years, including the recent budgetary support in the form of rollover of the T (treasury) bills”. 

Both sides also discussed a possible bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA). PM Modi underscored the importance of the bilateral relationship and also pointed out how India had helped Maldives in times of crisis – including the COVID pandemic.

A document issued by both sides, after the meeting with Muizzu and Modi, also recognised the importance of maritime cooperation and “common challenges in the Indian Ocean region”

As mentioned earlier, the downward spiral in bilateral ties between Maldives and India has resulted in a dramatic drop in Indian tourists visiting Maldives. The South Asian archipelagic nation has been trying to attract tourists and several shows were held in this context in July and August 2024. Muizzu also highlighted the importance of people-to-people contacts between both countries.

S. Jaishankar’s Sri Lanka Visit

On October 4, 2024, S. Jaishankar embarked upon a visit to Sri Lanka and met with senior officials of the new dispensation including — Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya, and Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath. Jaishankar reiterated India’s commitment towards economic assistance to Sri Lanka

Dissanayake, who leads a left-leaning political outfit had made an important point in the context of Sri Lanka remaining out of the India-China rivalry. Said the Sri Lankan President: “There are many power camps within a multipolar system… but we won’t be part of that geopolitical fight, nor will we be aligned with any party. We also don’t want to be sandwiched, especially between China and India. Both are valued friends and we expect them to become closer partners”.

India provided assistance – via food and financial assistance – to the tune of $4 billion to Sri Lanka when the nation faced a serious economic crisis. Like Maldives, Sri Lanka is also a favoured destination for many Indian tourists. After Sri Lanka’s decision to waive visa fees for Indian citizens, there has been a rise in Indian tourists visiting Sri Lanka.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while it is important for New Delhi to understand that other countries will give precedence to their own economic and strategic priorities, countries in the neighbourhood should seek to benefit from better relations with India and not get trapped in geopolitical rivalries. It is important to view ties between India’s neighbourhoods from a nuanced perspective and not remain stuck in binaries. Relations between India and several of its neighbours are multi-layered, with people-to-people links being very important, and not driven by any one specific area.

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