Friday, December 20, 2024
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Trump 2.0 India tariff
EconomyEditor's PickWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Trump 2.0 and India: Trumping Tariff Tensions, Transactionalism Amidst Geopolitical Rebalancing

It is tough to make any predictions regarding Trump 2.0. While some commentators believe that his policies will be as disruptionist as in his previous stint, others are of the opinion that he may be transactional but less unpredictable. During the presidential campaign, Trump had said that he would impose tariffs on countries which are trading in non-dollar currencies. It remains to be seen if he goes ahead with such measures given that several countries with close links to the US, including India, have been favouring de-dollarisation. It also remains to be seen how Trump 2.0 would perceive the Chabahar project given the current turmoil in the Middle East.

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Harris Trump USA World Order
PoliticsWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Harris vs Trump: The Battle for USA Amidst a Changing World Order

The November 5 US elections is likely to be a close one and could swing either way. The US foreign policy is likely to be driven by ground realities and will remain the same on fundamental issues. Going by his election campaign and his previous tenure as President, Donald Trump could be more isolationist – especially on economic issues. Unlike Donald Trump, Kamala Harris is unlikely to ruffle feathers with allies and partners over economic issues, though she could be more vocal on issues of human rights and freedoms even vis-à-vis friendly countries.

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DefenceEditor's PickPoliticsWorld
Sandra Sajeev D Costa

Operation Prosperity Guardian: West Asia in Splits

The Arab world has been witnessing exacerbating conflicts and spillovers in the region. Home to the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, Bahrain is the only Arab state to be part of the U.S. Naval Armada, Operation Prosperity Guardian. Both Iran and Saudi have been careful to not directly hit at each other since the restoration of their diplomatic ties. With this picture in mind, Saudi also would not want to harm the Iranian-backed Houthis. Like the Saudis, the Emiratis want to secure the Red Sea but do not want to be viewed as supporting Israel instead of solidarity with Palestine. With the nightmares of the previous Arab-Israeli wars still very much etched in the soil, the states have been trying to not escalate the tensions while trying to grapple for a balanced approach whilst also being steadfast in their solitude with Palestine.

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Riyadh Active Neutrality USA
Editor's PickPoliticsWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Riyadh’s ‘Active Neutrality’ at Play: SCO, OPEC+ and Proposed Defence Deal with USA

In March 2023, Riyadh entered the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a dialogue partner. Saudi Arabia had also signed a Beijing-mediated agreement with Iran to resume diplomatic ties. The Gulf nation has played an important part along with Russia in the OPEC+ cuts in oil production much to the displeasure of Washington DC. Yet, in recent days, Saudi Arabia has been pushing for getting a defence pact with the US ratified before the US election of 2024.

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US China Spy Ukraine
Editor's PickPoliticsWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Ukraine Conflict, ‘Spy Balloon’ and Evolving US-China Relationship

In recent weeks, tensions between Beijing and Washington seem to have escalated after the incident of an ‘alleged’ Chinese spy balloon being spotted in US airspace. The Biden Administration may not want ties with China to deteriorate further and it may also seek to find common ground on important global issues. It is likely however to continue with its tough economic stance vis-à-vis China in the run-up to the 2024 US presidential election. The important factors which will influence the trajectory of the Washington-Beijing relationship are the course of the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s stance on the same as well as China’s approach towards Taiwan.

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Pacifism Militarism Sounding Brass
PoliticsWorld
Alan Callow

Pacifism in Words, Militarism in Actions: The Sounding Brass Leaders of 21st Century

These days politicians are so convicted that their opinions are correct that they don’t hesitate to dissemble any facts that are contrary to their position. They always make loud statements. However, at times their words and actions do not jibe. It involves trouble for nations and more for whole regions. And that is particularly true for the Indo-Pacific region, where many countries have their own great ambitions and also have enough military power to achieve their objectives. It should be well understood that sooner or later this kind of double-standard policy will fail. The lessons of world history inevitably prove it. It is very important to stop in time and think about it. It seems that it is time to stop just making loud statements.

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Pakistan China USA De-hyphenation
PoliticsWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Pakistan’s China-USA Policy: De-hyphenation or Zero Sum?

In order to put its economy back on the rails, Pakistan needs to maintain good relations not just with China, but also put its bilateral ties with the US back on the rails. Given the deterioration in Washington-Beijing ties, it remains to be seen if Islamabad can manage the same. While Pakistan, like many other countries, has said that it does not want to be pushed into making any choices, it remains to be seen whether this will be possible in the changing geopolitical landscape.

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China US Indo-Pacific Strategy
PoliticsWorld
Kashif Anwar

China’s Perspective on the US Indo-Pacific Strategy: A Scholarly View

With the adoption of the Indo-Pacific concept vis-à-vis Asia-Pacific, many Chinese scholars and strategists have been alarmed. The development shows inefficiency in the US to protect its interests worldwide causing friction with China. These scholars argue the Indo-Pacific strategy of the US being directed against China and meant to develop an exclusive regional block. Once it’s implemented, the strategy will challenge China’s BRI and global position. In such a situation, Chinese scholars argue that the peace and stability and China’s rise have been impacted and undermined to protect the US interests and position in the region.

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Fallout of the Pelosi Visit to Taiwan
PoliticsWorld
Sohail Mahmood

Fallout of Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan: Increased Regional Tension

In the latest eruption of regional tensions, China announced a resumption of military exercises around Taiwan which seems to be the fallout of the Pelosi visit to Taiwan. The American response is inadequate to the exigency of the threat as it does not project strength anymore. The pivot approach of the United States towards Asia will now become a reality. Any war is going to devastate the global supply chains, already encountering interruptions and insecurity.

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I2U2 Significance Indo-Pacific
Editor's PickPoliticsWorld
Kashif Anwar

I2U2 and its Significance in the Indo-Pacific Region

The arrival of the I2U2 as a quadrilateral security structure in West Asia will act as a strategic group. Coupled with QUAD and the AUKUS, it will strengthen the position of the West in the Indo-Pacific Region. As the I2U2 focuses on the strategic concerns in West Asia as a geopolitical shift is taking place in the Western Indian Ocean, it will become a feature of the broader region with greater implications. I2U2 provides the opportunity for its members to collaborate and assist one another in six key areas. Being an economic group, it addresses the vacuum in West Asia and allows the Middle Eastern countries to view it as an alternative. With the smooth access and supply of oil being a prime aim across the world, the development of a security net under I2U2 will ensure peace and stability in the region.

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Pelosi visit Taiwan China
DefenceEditor's PickPoliticsWorld
Kashif Anwar

Crossing China’s Red Line: Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit on the Cards and Challenges Ahead

Recently leaked information regarding the possible visit of Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, to Taiwan in August created a diplomatic row between the US and China, pushing China to object to such a visit strongly. Pelosi is a long-time critic of China. Newt Gingrich was the last US Speaker to visit Taiwan, 25 years ago. With August being critical for President Xi Jinping’s leadership, it coincides with the Biden-Xi virtual summit. Although a statement from President Biden regarding the visit is concerning for the US-Taiwan ties, the visit being called off will only convince China that its deterrence worked and will strengthen its position over the Taiwan Issue.

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Tightrope for Pakistan with USA and China
PoliticsWorld
Tridivesh Singh Maini

Blinken-Zardari Meet: A Tightrope for Pakistan with USA and China

During the May 18 meeting, both Blinken and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari focused on strengthening not just US-Pakistan security ties but also economic linkages. The US could nudge IMF towards imposing less stringent conditionalities on Pakistan in order to prevent political instability. The US remains an important destination for Pakistani exports and this is one of the reasons why the business community in Pakistan, along with the Pakistan army as well as the political class, was not particularly comfortable with former PM Imran Khan’s rhetoric against the West, in general, and the US, in particular. There is a growing realization in Pakistan that while ties with Beijing may be important, it can not afford to allow relations with the US to deteriorate any further.

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IN SEARCH OF ALLIES
Editor's PickPoliticsWorld
Alan Callow

In Search of Allies: Washington and the World

The high-profile statements of the White House administration about the reorientation of the foreign policy course from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific region have now become a reality and are reflected in the fact that Washington has focused on the formation of military-political blocs among the countries of the region. However, the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan has raised great doubts about the reliability of US security guarantees for its allies. India is not sure of Washington’s support in the event of another escalation of the Indian-Chinese border conflict. Moreover, Beijing has become the largest market for Australia and the largest exporter of goods to the UK. It is also the main trading partner, both for Tokyo and Seoul.

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