Can BRICS Trump Trump?

17 April 2025 Akshat Dwivedi

Multifaceted challenges confront BRICS in the aftermath of Trump’s second term. The convergence of economic strain, geopolitical rivalry, and financial pushback during Trump’s second term has undoubtedly weakened internal cohesion. But, China and India’s economies remain engines of global growth; resource-rich Russia and the Middle Eastern entrants hold keys to energy security; and Brazil and others are indispensable to food supply and climate solutions. These interdependencies ensure that the idea of BRICS, as a coalition of non-Western powers, retains appeal. The article analyses the alliance’s internal dynamics, the external pressures exerted by US policies, and the potential pathways BRICS might pursue to maintain its relevance on the global stage. The central question remains: Can BRICS navigate these turbulent times and emerge stronger, or are we witnessing the gradual erosion of its influence?

Is the BRICS alliance dead in the water following the tumult of a Trump 2.0 presidency, or can it withstand the storm? As President Donald Trump’s renewed America-first policies unfold, the bloc of emerging powers — Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, now expanded with new members — finds itself at a critical juncture. US tariff threats, sanctions, and diplomatic pressures have challenged BRICS on multiple fronts. Yet, the group has also shown signs of resilience: boosting trade among its members, adding influential new partners, and doubling down on plans to reduce dependence on the West.

Economic Challenges & Trade Relations

President Trump quickly disrupted the BRICS economies with trade policies, threatening 100% tariffs if they abandon the dollar. These actions hurt exports, alarmed investors, and restricted access to dollars, causing economic pain and uncertainty in BRICS nations. Will US pressure be effective?

In 2023, BRICS+ accounted for around 28% of global GDP, and its intra-regional trade increased dramatically, signalling growing economic cohesion. By 2040, BRICS+ might exceed 50% of global GDP, posing a real challenge to Western economic dominance. US -BRICS+ trade totalled about $914 billion in 2024, with the US facing a $252.8 billion trade deficit. Given the substantial share of BRICS+ in US trade, retaliatory tariffs could disrupt supply chains, elevate consumer prices, and harm American industries. Despite these risks, the pressure has intensified cooperation within BRICS, particularly under US sanctions, further consolidating their unity.

In short, decoupling from the West is easier said than done. Yet the pressure has undeniably pushed BRICS members closer together out of necessity. Some analysts note that US sanctions on oil and other essentials are in fact “pushing the BRICS countries closer together”, as they collaborate to survive the squeeze.

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Decoupling from the West is easier said than done. Yet the pressure has undeniably pushed BRICS members closer together out of necessity.

Geopolitical Shifts & BRICS’ Global Influence

Trump’s unilateral foreign policy has reshaped geopolitical dynamics, prompting China and Russia to position BRICS as an alternative to Western-led global structures. Both countries have advocated for a multipolar world, granting emerging economies a stronger international voice. However, BRICS+ expansion also intensified internal divisions, as rivalries such as Iran-UAE and Egypt-Ethiopia emerged within the bloc.

Even before expansion, BRICS faced internal friction, particularly due to China’s aggressive push for rapid growth, which concerned India, Brazil, and South Africa over diminished influence and inclusion of anti-Western members like Iran. Despite these issues, BRICS remains intact, serving as a rare diplomatic space for China, India, and Russia. India’s balancing role is crucial, acknowledged even by China, emphasising mutual partnership as essential for stability and cooperation.

Financial & Monetary Policies

The sharpest clash between Trump’s America and BRICS has emerged in the financial domain. BRICS nations have long been frustrated by the US dollar’s dominance, which enables Washington to impose powerful sanctions. In response, Russia proposed a “BRICS Pay” network to bypass Western-controlled financial systems. While leaders like Brazil’s President Lula supported the idea of a shared BRICS currency, critics argue that such a move requires deep political and monetary integration—something unlikely in the near term.

BRICS nations have long been frustrated by the US dollar’s dominance, which enables Washington to impose powerful sanctions. In response, Russia proposed a “BRICS Pay” network to bypass Western-controlled financial systems. BRICS continues its cautious push to reshape global finance, not through abrupt confrontation, but by slowly weakening the dollar’s dominance while maintaining economic stability.

Instead, BRICS is taking incremental steps toward financial independence. The New Development Bank has begun funding projects in local currencies, aiming to reduce reliance on the dollar. Though smaller than institutions like the IMF and World Bank, the NDB offers financial support when Western lenders retreat. Additionally, BRICS central banks maintain a Contingent Reserve Arrangement for liquidity crises. Overall, BRICS continues its cautious push to reshape global finance, not through abrupt confrontation, but by slowly weakening the dollar’s dominance while maintaining economic stability.

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Crypto Policy of Trump and Future Prospects for BRICS+

Trump’s crypto policies have sparked concerns about unintentionally weakening the US dollar’s dominance. By establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, the US is legitimising crypto as a national asset outside the dollar system. This could slowly erode the Federal Reserve’s control over the money supply, leading to an internal form of “de-dollarisation.” Globally, while the US hopes dollar-backed stablecoins will dominate, its crypto promotion is also enabling rivals like Russia to bypass the dollar. In response to sanctions, Russia has begun using Bitcoin, Ether, and Tether to trade oil with China and India without involving the US dollar.

At the 2024 BRICS Summit in Kazan, they considered “the Unit”, a potentially gold-backed currency, for economic independence. The “BRICS Bridge”, a multilateral digital settlement platform, was discussed at the February 2024 finance ministers’ meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

BRICS is discussing creating a new currency to compete with the US dollar, focusing on digital solutions. At the 2024 BRICS Summit in Kazan, they considered “the Unit”, a potentially gold-backed currency, for economic independence. The “BRICS Bridge“, a multilateral digital settlement platform, was discussed at the February 2024 finance ministers’ meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil. China is involved in mBridge, a multi-CBDC blockchain project with Asian and Gulf central banks, enabling instant transactions without SWIFT. India launched pilot programs for a digital rupee in 2022, expanding testing in wholesale and retail contexts. Technical readiness is emerging, but economic coordination and political agreement remain major hurdles.

A BRICS coin could significantly boost trade among member nations and other emerging economies by serving as a common unit of account and medium of exchange, reducing reliance on the Dollar or Euro. It would lower exchange rate risks and transaction costs through seamless currency conversion. Analysts estimate that settling even 50% of intra-BRICS trade in a digital currency could cut transaction costs by 1% to 2%, generating billions in savings that could support future development.

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One idea for a reserve currency is the “R5” or the “R5+”, backed by BRICS currencies (real, ruble, rupee, renminbi, rand). This could reduce volatility by offsetting declines in one currency with rises in another. Another approach is to have BRICS central banks jointly issue a digital fiat currency, though mutual trust may be initially low due to differing monetary policies. A hybrid model might start with gold/commodities and member currencies backing the digital currency, then transition to a free-floating system as confidence grows. The choice of backing is crucial: gold or commodity backing limits liquidity and expansion, while a pure fiat or basket system needs strong coordination to avoid instability.

After years of turbulence, BRICS stands at a crossroads. The convergence of economic strain, geopolitical rivalry, and financial pushback during Trump’s second term has undoubtedly weakened internal cohesion. But, China and India’s economies remain engines of global growth (despite recent slowdowns); resource-rich Russia and the Middle Eastern entrants hold keys to energy security; and Brazil and others are indispensable to food supply and climate solutions. These interdependencies ensure that the idea of BRICS, as a coalition of non-Western powers, retains appeal. The coming years will test whether the bloc can evolve from a reactive alliance into a proactive force shaping global norms.

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