Indo-Pacific: The Dragon-Eagle Rivalry and ASEAN’s Balancing Act

Washington’s commitment to counterbalance Chinese influence in the region and promote a free maritime domain in the East and South China Seas has led to a polarisation of the region. While aiming to promote a sovereign maritime domain in the Southeast and reinforce resilience against transnational threats, this policy also poses a risk of polarising and destabilising the region, potentially turning it into a focal point in the rivalry between the United States and China. ASEAN must uphold its traditional non-alignment policy to ensure its position as the premier regional organisation and conflict resolver

For centuries, the United States and the world have viewed Asia too narrowly – as an arena of geopolitical competition. Today, the Indo-Pacific nations play a pivotal role in defining the international order. The U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy has been a cornerstone of Washington’s foreign policy under President George W. Bush and the administrations that followed. Key pillars of the policy include counterbalancing China’s growing influence, asserting the principles of freedom of navigation, respect for international law and sovereignty of nations in the region, and building resilience to transnational threats by strengthening alliances with Southeast Asian nations and multilateral cooperation forums. The region sits at the nexus of global trade routes, particularly the South China Sea, where nearly a third of international maritime trade passes. As a result, Southeast Asia is not only a regional focus but also a central arena for the broader strategic rivalry between Washington and Beijing.

From a security perspective, integrated defence is the cornerstone of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy. Initiatives to reinforce deterrence and counter coercion are the driving factors of the US approach to securing the Indo-Pacific. United States forces are also preparing and evolving to operate in non-traditional threat domains such as space, cyberspace and critical and emerging technology. Washington’s commitment to counterbalance Chinese influence in the region and promote a free maritime domain in the East and South China Seas has led to a polarisation of the region. The establishment of minilateral security architectures such as QUAD, SQUAD, and AUKUS are manifestations of the Indo-Pacific Strategy to ensure the region’s security.

To bolster Indo-Pacific security and secure a free and open Indo-Pacific, the United States has deployed more regional military assets and sponsored heavy military buildup in partner nations. Washington has reaffirmed its Indo-Pacific partner nations of their commitments by establishing minilateral security architectures. The presence of the United States and NATO forces, along with frequent military exercises, exacerbates regional security tensions in disputed areas such as the South China Sea. Treaties such as the Taiwan Relations Act, Mutual Defence Treaty, Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, and ANZUS have led China to respond militarily: increasing PLA Naval presence in the region, frequent skirmishes with US partner nations in the South China Sea and military drills off the coast of Taiwan and Japan and arming its allies and deploying Chinese armed forces in allied nations, further increasing the risk of armed conflicts and military standoffs.

The establishment of minilateral security architectures such as QUAD, SQUAD, and AUKUS are manifestations of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy to ensure the region’s security.

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The Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has long been viewed as the premier regional organisation. ASEAN has traditionally pursued a policy of non-alignment, making it the diplomatic hub for resolving and preventing conflicts in the region. The Indo-Pacific Strategy increases polarisation among ASEAN member nations, weakening ASEAN unity and its ability to resolve and prevent regional conflicts.

The escalation of the United States military presence and the concurrent militarisation of partner nations have contributed to a regional arms race and heightened Chinese military manoeuvres within the region. In response to Chinese activities in the South China Sea, as well as off the coasts of Japan and Taiwan, the United States engages in military drills and exercises with partner nations. The United States military drills and exercises in the region are viewed as encirclement efforts in Beijing, resulting in China responding with naval skirmishes involving the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia over territorial claims in the South China Sea, the illegal occupation of disputed and uninhabited islands, and the creation of new islands.

Southeast Asian nations must now navigate the Washington-Beijing dynamics while preserving their strategic autonomy and ensuring regional stability.

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While aiming to promote a sovereign maritime domain in the Southeast and reinforce resilience against transnational threats, this policy also poses a risk of polarising and destabilising the region, potentially turning it into a focal point in the rivalry between the United States and China. Although both nations have engaged in occasional escalations, the United States has refrained from escalating beyond diplomatic measures in its response. Southeast Asian nations must now navigate the Washington-Beijing dynamics while preserving their strategic autonomy and ensuring regional stability. ASEAN must uphold its traditional non-alignment policy to ensure its position as the premier regional organisation and conflict resolver while ensuring an armed conflict or standoff does not escalate into a full-blown war between one or more member nations.

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