Extreme Weather, Rising Costs: India Must Ratchet Up NDC 3.0 Climate Commitments and Act!
India is the 7th most vulnerable nation to climate and weather-related events. The increasing frequency and impact of extreme weather events serve as a clarion call for a structured policy and concrete action plan to fill the existing policy vacuum.
As the world steps into 2025, a year that marks the beginning of the New NDC commitments (also known as NDC 3.0), it portends both a challenge and a valuable opportunity for India to ratchet up its climate actions to foster the growth of economic and industrial ecosystems that align with its national considerations while ensuring sustainability and environmental justice.
According to the latest WEF Global Risks report, ‘extreme weather events’ rank as the 2nd most pressing security threat after ‘state-based armed conflicts’. This statistic alone underscores the urgency with which we must act, for environmental threats are not distant threats anymore but our present realities. Closer home, the latest India Climate Report 2024 shows the rising climate risks for India. The report highlights that India witnessed the highest number of extreme weather events ranging from intense heat waves to torrential rainfalls with several climate records being breached throughout the country. This underlines how India is suffering the dire effects of climate change exposing the stark realities of the growing social and economic costs due to the exacerbating effects of climate change. Ramping up climate action has become the need of the hour.
India’s vulnerability to climate risks stems from its highly nature-dependent economy that encashes one-third of its GDP from sectors that heavily rely on nature. The activities include forestry; agriculture; fisheries and aquaculture; food, beverages and tobacco; energy and water utilities and construction that are at direct risk from erratic weather and climate-related phenomena. It is estimated that climate risks would implicate 6.4% to more than 10% of India’s national income by 2100, having significant ramifications on its economy.
India’s vulnerability to climate risks stems from its highly nature-dependent economy that encashes one-third of its GDP from sectors that heavily rely on nature. It is estimated that climate risks would implicate 6.4% to more than 10% of India’s national income by 2100, having significant ramifications on its economy.
Being one of the world’s fastest-growing economies in the world, with rising energy consumption that remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, India’s overall climate pollution has grown about 75% higher than in 2005. Surprisingly, most of the pollution comes from the same sectors that are most likely to suffer from climate change. India has also nearly doubled its per-capita carbon emissions in the past two decades since 2005.
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Studies suggest that India will be one of the most affected country due to climate change incurring the highest social costs than any of its global counterparts attributed to its hot climate combined with its large and rapidly developing economy. Implications on social security will be most visible in the form of water shortage, effects on food security, mortality rates, and increasing poverty.
The delayed onset of La Nina and its inability to cool down global temperatures has been vividly discernible in the recent decade. On account of greenhouse gases (GHG) induced warming, India’s average temperature has risen by around 0.7°C during 1901–2018. This makes India 30 times more prone to face early heat.
This is likely to have a ripple effect as warming temperatures will dry out the soil, driving up the water demand and stressing groundwater resources – resulting in aquifer depletion. Water supplies are supposed to be hit hard as India despite supporting approximately 18% of the global populace only has access to 4% of the world’s freshwater resources with the situation exacerbated by lax environmental pollution and waste disposal norms. Water-inefficient practices in agriculture already cost India twice or thrice the amount of water per crop. India uses 2-3 times more water to produce the same amount of crops as China. Additional stress on water resources is expected amidst growing industrialization and sprouting AI data centres.
81.9% of the Indian populace lives in areas where the air quality fails to meet the country’s National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) of 40 µg/m³ of PM2.5 — that are much higher than the WHO’s recommendation of 5µg/m³
Implications for India’s food security can be clearly assessed from the statistics that predict a 16% loss in agricultural output, equivalent to a 2.8% GDP loss by 2030. This could take 50 million people back into poverty by the end of this century.
Climate change also has adverse effects on human health and mortality posing significant threats, including increased air pollution, disease spread, and mental health challenges underscored by the following statistics:
- Approximately 13 million deaths annually can be linked to environmental factors (The Lancet).
- Six of the world’s ten most polluted cities are located in India (IQ Air Report, 2024)
- 81.9% of the Indian populace lives in areas where the air quality fails to meet the country’s National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) of 40 µg/m³ of PM2.5 — that are much higher than the WHO’s recommendation of 5µg/m³.
- Besides pollution-related fatality, the WHO predicts that an additional 250,000 climate-related deaths will occur globally – per year – between 2030 and 2050, given the current trajectory, from malnutrition, malaria diarrhoea and heat stress.
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The adverse impacts of climate change inordinately affect biodiversity by destroying the ecosystems that underpin our societies and economies. This not only leads to the loss of biodiversity that upsets ecological life cycles but also the destruction of tribal economies, offsetting migration trends that result in an increased strain on extant resources. The quality of life of the migrants is severely impacted as they turn to slums for cheaper accommodation. This contributes to the problems in urban planning and raises concerns about public safety and health. Furthermore, experiencing natural disasters, displacement and related traumatic events such as witnessing serious injury or death can also cause psychological distress. Combinedly, the disruption of the economy triggered by such an event critically impacts the social and economic determinants of mental health such as income, education, employment, and housing resulting in unemployment, homelessness, or food and water insecurity that can potentially trigger a wider mental health crisis.
According to Climate Action Network South Asia, India could see up to 45 million people displaced by 2050. The case of Sundarbans can help in understanding the cumulative phenomenon. The cluster of Islands in the Bay of Bengal mainly depends on agriculture, fishing and other marine activities for sustenance. However, with the rising sea levels and coastal erosion chipping the land way and increasing salinity rendering the soil infertile, agriculture is becoming a less viable means of livelihood. The situation has been further exacerbated by an increasing number of storms and floods that hamper fishing and other marine activities. Resultantly, there has been an increasing trend in permanent, seasonal and temporary migration from the islands.
As former U.S. President Barack Obama once said, “We are the first generation to feel the impact of climate change and the last generation that can do something about it.” This sentiment drives home the immediate need for policies that not only limit emissions but also stimulate economic growth through green innovation.
Despite India’s commendable efforts in combating climate change, India lacks adequate climate finance to achieve its commitments. The Economic Survey of India 2023-24 estimated that financing to the tune of USD 2.5 trillion is necessary to meet India’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) targets by 2030.
India is the 7th most vulnerable nation to climate and weather-related events. The increasing frequency and impact of extreme weather events serve as a clarion call for a structured policy and concrete action plan to fill the existing policy vacuum.
Despite India’s commendable efforts in combating climate change, including decarbonization initiatives like the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), a focus on renewable energy through the National Solar Mission and Hydel power generation, and ambitious international commitments like NDCs, COP 26 Panchamrit and One Sun One World One Grid (OSOWOG), India lacks adequate climate finance to achieve its commitments. The Economic Survey of India 2023-24 estimated that financing to the tune of USD 2.5 trillion is necessary to meet India’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) targets by 2030.
India has resisted stricter mandates and restrictions that might hamper its trade and economy. However, to balance short-term necessities with long-term goals and realize a path to strong, equitable, and shared growth, action toward implementing adaptation and mitigation measures to combat climate change remains incumbent.
India’s rapidly growing industrial economy aims to transition itself into a greener and cleaner economy, underscores a critical need for a comprehensive approach to climate change and aims for consistent collective action against climate change. Thus, to augment its position as a leading power, it remains contingent on India to master the balance between growth and sustainability and rethink how to restore ecological balance while coexisting with nature which remains India’s greatest paradox – an arduous challenge and a golden opportunity.
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