Let's Rise Together!
The most famous historical facts of mass sexual crimes are connected in the minds of ordinary people with the image of Nazis during World War 2, with the Japanese militarists who carried out the Nanjing Massacre or with the genocide of the population during the civil war in Rwanda. However, let’s put this theme in the context of the continuing war in Ukraine.
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Russia’s unprovoked war in Ukraine has shocked the world, producing an unprecedented opportunity for the Biden administration to use global public opinion, primarily in the West, to buttress the solidarity between the United States, NATO, and EU against Russia, its long-term adversary. Biden knows that the November midterm elections will determine his political standing and the war’s course. Most importantly, the economic and financial tools available, especially the sanctions regime, are going to become more important as the war grudges on into a stalemate of sorts, with no clear winners on either side.
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Considering the long history of Ukraine and Russia, the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine factored in Kyiv’s desire to join NATO, bringing NATO close to Russian borders. The desire to join NATO not only extended the conflict, which stretched to more than 100 days, but it also caused one of the major humanitarian crises in recent times. With the West continuing to aid Ukraine through military aid, the relevance of Ukraine adopting neutrality still stands valid, as Russia continues to occupy more Ukrainian territory with no scope of peace in the forefront.
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The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has had a long history and with threat perceptions on both sides. However, the conflicts and wars benefit only a few, and that too in the short term. The world must work together to end this crisis at the earliest. Or else, its cascading effect might push the whole world into an abyss from where the recovery would become extremely difficult. The underdeveloped and the developing world are likely to be the worst affected and they all must come together to pitch for peace.
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Although several developed countries might propagate the idea that the conflicts and wars bring misery to humanity at large, they promote the idea of defence preparedness as a means and instrument of deterrence, and this ensures that their interests are served even during good times. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created all the needed threat perception amongst many a country to cause the global armament exports to flourish. Will the geopolitics permit, promote, and support India to capitalize on this export opportunity, or would it be prevented from doing so?
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Russia-Ukraine war is effecting world economy through financial sanctions imposed against Russia, its fallouts are likely to be severe.
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The financial warfare against Russia, inter alia, has cut off Russian banks from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) thereby blocking Russia from rapid money transfers internationally. Even though SWIFT accounts for no more than 1 percent of the transactions involving Russian entities and payments, the ban may potentially disrupt its trade in energy and agricultural produce as well as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Foreign Institutional Investors (FII). In totality, the sanctions against Russia may shrink its economy by 5 percent. The current crisis has made many countries of the world think of developing alternative payment systems and capabilities. This would be a challenging task as the alternative to SWIFT would work only when a larger number of countries become willing to cooperate and agree to become a part of the alternative network.
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The Russia-Ukraine conflict can intensify the already shaken economic conditions created by COVID-19 as inflationary pressures might have an effect on many countries. Investors in Central and Eastern Europe are cautious with their investments. As per an IMF report, the sanctions imposed against Russia will impact the global economy. It clearly seems to have already affected FDI and portfolio investment in many countries, including India. For the sixth month in a row, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net sellers in February, selling shares worth $4.9 billion. It was also the most shares sold by FPIs since the epidemic began in March 2020, when they sold $8.3 billion worth of stock. The Union Finance Minister of India had stated that the Russia-Ukraine conflict and surge in crude oil prices pose risk to the financial stability of the country.
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The world has been thrown into yet another catastrophe caused by the Russian attack on Ukraine and the retaliatory sanctions imposed on Russia by the major economies of the world. It is now time to see how would these twin crises of the pandemic and the ongoing conflict affect the geopolitics and world economy. Russia accounts for nearly a quarter of the global gas market and has been a major supplier of crude, platinum. Russia and Ukraine are also the top suppliers of neon gas, essential for making semiconductor chips, an essential component of every electronic item. Even though the direct effect of sanctions on major economies might appear minuscule as they may have relatively smaller and limited trade with Russia, they too would suffer significantly on account of indirect, collateral, and tangential repercussions.
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While analysts focus on wrangling between great powers, the economic and geopolitical relevance of countries like Iran often gets relegated to the sidelines. The revival of the JCPOA, and closer economic ties between Tehran and the West, especially the purchase of Iranian oil by the US and other western countries, could actually result in Tehran re-orienting its foreign policy. If Iran and other signatories do manage to come up with an agreement, Iran’s sagging economy could get a big boost.
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As Russian troops reach Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, the Brent crude prices have already touched $110 a barrel, a level that was breached 8 years ago in 2014. The moot question, therefore, is, whether or not India was ready to anticipate and handle the consequences arising out of such a crisis with minimal disruptions. Taxes on petroleum, today, may be a major source of revenue but is also vulnerable to volatility impelling upon the need to look for an alternative but stable source of revenue to the government.
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Against the backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine Conflict, there is an increasing suspicion that Beijing would follow Moscow’s lead and attempt to conquer Taiwan militarily. Ukraine’s experience should instil a stronger sense of urgency in Taiwan regarding the need to overcome bureaucratic and partisan impediments to coalescing around a military plan that is fit for Taiwan’s security environment and resource restrictions. This is an opportunity for Taiwan’s current and future leaders to instil confidence in the country’s future.
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The ongoing Ukraine Crisis has transported India back to the Cold War era when it was expected to choose a side. However, given India’s growing stature in international affairs and its dynamics with the two countries, maintaining the same strategic autonomy as last time will be nearly impossible. While a Russia-China-India axis in the present scenario is next to impossible, jumping on the Washington wagon has its own set of ill consequences for India vis-à-vis Moscow. It is in India’s best interests for the Ukraine crisis to be de-escalated as soon as possible.
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