Fall of Assad Regime: The Syrian Turmoil and Its Geopolitical Implications

The article inquires into the fall of the Assad regime and what it means to the world. The rebels supported by the US have captured Damascus. Now, Syria is a safe haven for Islamic radicals/militants. What happened in Afghanistan has been repeated in Syria. Iran is also facing a major threat after the fall of Damascus.

Twenty-four years of Bashar Al Assad’s rule over Syria finally came to an end with the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) capturing Damascus. As per the reports, Assad and his family have fled to Russia. This finally brings an end to thirteen years of civil war in Syria which first started as a peaceful movement demanding democracy and accountability. The Assad regime ruthlessly crushed the protests. The resistance against the regime became violent and turned into an all-out war with the rise of the Islamic State and Al-Nusra. The Sunni-dominated terrorist outfits operating in both Syria and Iraq wanted to get rid of the Shi’ite regime in Iraq and Alawite (an offshoot of Shia Islam) rule in Syria. The Assad regime received immense support from Russia and Iran which helped him to crush the Sunni Islamist forces for all these years. But the Russia – Ukraine war and the Iran – Israel escalations made Damascus vulnerable to the rebels and the capital fell without much resistance. The rebels (HTS in this case) received support from the United States and Turkey. Even though many are celebrating the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, it poses acute challenges to the global community.

What just happened in Syria looks like a repetition of the events that unfolded in Afghanistan after the announcement of the withdrawal of the US forces. Kabul fell into the hands of the Taliban without much resistance. The Western forces abandoned millions of people in the hands of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the fall of Assad has passed Syria to another terrorist outfit HTS, which began as an offshoot of Al Nusra terrorists with Al-Qaeda links. So essentially, what started as a democratic movement has ended up in utmost chaos and a safe haven for Islamic terrorists. Turkey supported the ‘rebels’ to contain the ‘Kurdistan’ problem that it has been facing for decades. The videos of the HTS terrorists captivating women soldiers of the Kurdish forces have already gone viral. The threat of IS coming back from hibernation looms large over Syria and the entire region.

Who Benefits and Who Doesn’t

America and Israel are the two winners in the ongoing Syrian crisis. The US has secured a political victory over Russia and Iran with the fall of Assad. The weapons used by Hezbollah (Iran’s proxy) in Lebanon against Israel came from Iran through Syria. It is expected that the new regime which is antagonistic to Iran will not let this happen. Also, the fall of the Assad government leaves Iran and Iraq vulnerable to a new wave of Sunni terrorism which will shift the current focus from Israel. Hours after the fall of Assad, Israel occupied a demilitarised buffer zone with Syria in Golan claiming that the 1974 Separation of Force agreement expired its 50-year life. Interestingly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has welcomed the regime change in Syria. Turkey has a huge refugee influx problem from northern Syria and this is an issue that Turkey wants to settle. Turkey wants its refugees to go back to Syria once there is political stability there. Also, the current Syrian situation has weakened the separatist Kurdish organisations in Turkey.

The US has secured a political victory over Russia and Iran with the fall of Assad. Turkey supported the ‘rebels’ to contain the ‘Kurdistan’ problem that it has been facing for decades. The fall of the Assad government leaves Iran and Iraq vulnerable to a new wave of Sunni terrorism

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The collapse of the Assad regime has put Russia and Iran in a very tricky situation. Bashar Al Assad has been a long-standing ally of the Kremlin and he is displayed from power by the West to support rebels. Russia is already fighting a prolonged war without much achievement in Ukraine. Iran’s proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, Shia militants of Iraq and Houthis in Yemen are all facing major challenges from Israel. Israel murdering the political leader of Gaza, Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran was a major setback to the regime in Iran. Also, Iran has shown its reluctance to directly engage in a compact with Israel due to the latter’s technological superiority and most modern equipment. The political happenings in Syria have weakened Iran to a greater extent.

Is HTS the neo-ISIS?

Now, just like the Jihadi outfit Taliban has a sovereign nation, HTS has Syria. The HTS supremo Abu Mohammed al-Jolani has stated that his organisation’s motto was only to oust the Syrian President and does not intend to harm any religious minorities. Al-Jolani has a head bounty of $10 million and is said to have close links with global terrorist outfit Al-Qaeda. There are multiple groups on the ground in Syria controlling different geographical areas. Whether these groups will be willing to come together in a caretaker government or any such arrangement is unclear. The rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is an umbrella organisation of Sunni radicals, in the Middle East threatens the entire region. The possibility of armed conflicts between Sunnis and Shias in the region cannot be ruled out.

The security of religious minorities like the Druze, Christians, Yazidis and Alawites in the new regime is clearly under question. The atrocities on people from these religious denominations were rampant under IS. The Taliban had also promised to protect the religious minorities in Afghanistan, but fearful for their lives, the remaining Sikhs and Hindus had fled to India by then. Already, there is fear of the Assad regime’s weapons getting into the hands of terrorists. To avoid this situation, both the US and Israel have been bombing the erstwhile regime’s military centres.

Also Read: Netanyahuism: The Zeitgeist of Our Times?

Conclusion

The Assad regime’s fall will strengthen the rhetoric of pan-Islamism all around the world. Especially in the Global South and the West, this could initiate a first wave of Jihadi activities. Iran is an important strategic partner to India and the vulnerability of Iran affects the Indian interests in the region. A certain section of Western media is portraying the fall of Assad’s regime as a step towards democracy and free speech. But what they fail to understand is that the nation has fallen from bad to worse!

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