Israel-Hamas War and 2024: A Brief Analysis

The war started after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, in which 1,200 people were killed and about 240 others taken hostage. Months of heavy bombardment of Gaza has claimed over 22,000 lives, mostly women and children. Some 58, 000 people in Gaza were wounded. Another 7,000 people were trapped under the rubble. A total of 172 Israeli soldiers have been killed and more than 900 have been injured. Since the start of the war, 506 service members and women have been killed.^[i] International concern is growing at mounting casualties. There have been global protests against Israeli killings of Palestinian civilians.

Israeli strikes in Gaza have reduced much of the territory to rubble and plunged its 2.4 million people into a humanitarian disaster. ^[ii]

Netanyahu has vowed to press ahead with the war until Hamas is crushed and the more than 100 hostages still held by the militant group in Gaza are freed. Israeli leaders have outlined a low-intensity campaign that focuses on remaining Hamas strongholds.^[iii]

The IDF continued the raids across several areas of the occupied West Bank. Since October 7, at least 321 Palestinians have been killed by the IDF or Israeli settlers. More than 2,550 people have been arrested in the occupied territory since the war began. ^[iv] Israel conducted 76 attacks on Syrian territory in 2023. ^[v] Israel also conducted air strikes on January 2, 2024, targeting Syria. ^[vi]

Israel announced a new phase in which the IDF would draw down forces inside Gaza this month and shift to a months-long phase of more localized “mopping up” operations. Meanwhile, Hamas also showed its continued ability to target launching a barrage of rocket fire at Tel Aviv.^[vii] The war between Israel and the Hamas is expected to last all of 2024.^[viii]

The unprecedented widespread death and destruction led South Africa to file a case against Israel at the ICJ, accusing it of “genocidal” acts that aim “to destroy Palestinians in Gaza.”^[ix]

South Africa asked the ICJ to issue an interim order for Israel to suspend its military operations in Gaza immediately. The case, if it goes ahead, will take years, but an interim order could be issued within weeks. Any ruling against Israel would have, but it would isolate the country politically and economically.^[x]

Global pressure mounts in Israel to limit the duration and intensity of its war. The risk of a wider Middle East conflict escalating. There are increasing cross-border exchanges between the Iran-backed, Islamist paramilitary group Hezbollah and the IDF on the Lebanon-Israel border. Proxy attacks by Iran-backed factions in Iraq and further attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on global shipping routes through the Red Sea could escalate adding to further regional instability.^[xi]

There have been at least seventeen attacks on vessels which the Houthis believe are linked to Israel or its allies, mostly without success. The Yemen-based group has targeted ships in the Red Sea in a show of support for Hamas. The U.S. December 31, 2023, sunk three Houthi boats in response to an attack by the Iran-backed militants on a 2023, container ship in the Red Sea.

Also Read: Israel-Hamas War: No Endgame Amid International Pressure

Ten Houthi fighters were killed, and their death marks a new phase in the crisis.^[xii]

The brutal attacks on Gaza created an immense outpouring of public support for the Palestinian cause. Demonstrations were held in several countries across the globe. The Arab and Muslim public opinion turned against the US as it saw the Biden administration as complicit in the Israeli aggression and its relentless attacks on Gaza. The public believes that Biden was encouraging Israel in its aggression against the Gazans. Israel wants to conduct a brutal ethnic cleansing of the Gazans. A forced movement of Gazans south will lead to another Naqba, a reference to the first forced dislocation of Arabs in 1948. Most of the Western media is supporting Israel fully and wholeheartedly, as expected.

The long-running conflict is now heading into uncharted and dangerous territory. There are increasing concerns that the conflict could spill out into the region.^[xiii] Iranian threats of entering the war somehow if the Gaza situation deteriorates further must be taken seriously. It can and will open the South Lebanon theatre of war. In that eventuality, the Iranian-Hamas-Hezbollah nexus will be established. Iran cannot let Israel dismantle Hamas in Gaza. Israel and the US are aware of this eventuality. The elimination of Hamas by Israel is not possible at all. Given the public support of Hamas in the Global South, the US will not be eager to enter yet another war in the Middle East. It was American hubris that led to its defeat in Afghanistan after two decades of war against the Taliban, a rag-tag militia at the most. Americans recall their Iraq misadventure and are very reluctant to get embroiled in yet another war, not of their own making. The American foreign policy establishment also realizes the changed nature of asymmetric warfare and the salience of nationalism as a potent force in global politics. Therefore, the US will be overly cautious in intervening again in the region for the sake of Israel’s security. Arab and Muslim resilience can be expected down the road. The further escalation of the war in Lebanon and Syria will spell disaster not only for Israel but also for the US.

Both Russia and China can be expected to increase their assistance to the Arab resistance forces like Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah aligned with Iran, which has a history of providing support to these groups. Most importantly, the US is distracted because of internal politics and Ukraine’s war and would want the war to end soon enough, weeks not months at the best.

The US has a convergence of national interest with local powers like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and even Pakistan to contain the war to Gaza only. An escalation of war can get out of control. The US does not want that to happen. Only the US can stop Israel from eliminating Hamas from Gaza, as announced by its leadership. The world is now polarized between support for Israel and against it. The US cannot support an outright invasion of Gaza and a bloody ethnic cleansing project without a cost and profound consequences. Therefore, the US should earnestly work for a cease-fire. Gaza cannot be occupied again by Israel and is ruled directly as a total and absolute ruling power. Neither can the Hamas be marginalized. At best it can be weakened. The hardline Israeli government will make more enemies as the Arab and Muslim world creates greater sympathy for the Palestinians.

The October 7 Hamas attacks did not happen in thin air. There is a history of Israeli expansionism, aggression, human rights violations, and sheer subjugation of Gazans since 2006. Gaza is an open-air prison for all practical purposes where Israel controls all aspects of life there. Plus, fighting between the two sides has surged in the past two years. The violence was driven by frequent Israeli military raids in Palestinian towns and cities, which Israel has said are a necessary response to a rising number of attacks by Palestinian militants on Israelis.

Global public opinion is already shifting against Israel. The consequences of a hurried and ill-thought war on the region would be disastrous. Wars are nothing but politics by other means, the great strategist Clausewitz taught us. However, the Gaza war has not been thought out clearly by both the US and Israel.

What comes next? Can Hamas be defeated, as claimed by Israel? Since Hamas is more than a militant organization, it is an ideology with deep roots in Gaza. Therefore, it is very doubtful that it can be defeated. For argument’s sake, even if it is defeated, what will replace it? Direct military rule by Israel will further complicate matters in the enclave. On October 31, 2023, Blinken said the United States and other countries were looking at “a variety of possible permutations” for the future of Gaza if Hamas fighters are removed from control. ^[xiv]

Most importantly, the Muslim world will turn against both the US and Israel even further. The devastation of Gaza will create an upswing in anti-American sentiment in the Arab and Muslim world. Even though Muslim and Arab governments are not supporting Hamas, the people are doing it. Global electronic media, especially social media, is a new phenomenon that is affecting public sentiments to turn against Israel. Notwithstanding Western claims to the contrary, the Global South is siding with the Palestinian cause. Israel is poised to overreact which like the US after 9/11 will make the greater Middle East a more volatile and dangerous region. Such a development will weaken the US. In short, a fallout in a prolonged war will prove disastrous for the entire region and will result in the rebirth of Islamic fundamentalism. No one would want that to happen. The path to a two-state solution, as hinted by President Biden, is possible provided there is a quick cease-fire and an end of hostilities. However, the Israeli momentum of war cannot be easily stopped even by the US itself. Therefore, weeks of bloodshed can be seen in the Gaza and North Israel border with Lebanon. It all depends on Israel and its staunch American backer.

The Biden administration is trying to contain the spread of the war. However, the constant pro-Israel policy of the US is creating an imbalance in approach to the issue. The US fails to fully comprehend the viewpoints of the Palestinians, and their Arab and Muslim supporters. Although the Biden administration talks about the eventuality of a Two-State Solution it is seen as just lip service to global demand, empty rhetoric, and only plain talk to stall for Israel to subjugate the Palestinians completely. Given its outright and tremendous support for Israel, the credibility of the US is diminishing in the region, as well as in the overall Global South.

The war, if not contained now, will have a significant impact on the entire region. Already, the war has escalated beyond Palestine and has involved Yemen and Lebanon. Many Arab governments do not support Hamas, but their people do. It is not only the Arab people but also those of the larger Islamic world that support Hamas. The reason for that support is the humiliation and anger felt by Hamas from Israeli atrocities, especially the late desecration of the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, and the exceptionally long occupation of Palestine in general. The Western media is mostly biased in favour of Israel and does not show the true sentiments of the Arab and Muslim peoples of the region.

What is likely to happen in the future?

Appeals for restraint came from around the world, though Western nations stood by Israel.^[xv] When the situation in the Gaza Strip deteriorates significantly, Hezbollah may step into the war in southern Lebanon. A new push for the establishment of the Palestinian state may well occur after the warring sides are exhausted.

Only after Israel has achieved its strategic objectives, as it defines itself, will the war end and not before. The US only wants to contain the war, not end it any time soon. It might last for the year, as indicated by the Israeli leadership already. Notwithstanding the global condemnation, Israel will not stop until it has achieved its stated objectives. There will then be a cease-fire and an exchange of Israeli POWs and Palestinian prisoners. Qatar, Egypt, and Türkiye will facilitate this exchange.

Having been defeated, Hamas will make peace with Israel. This will happen from weakness and sheer exhaustion more than anything else. However, the conflict will rupture again after some years.

The debate today is what happens after the war ends. The US proposed a reformed Palestinian Authority to come back to Gaza. Blinken told a US Senate hearing earlier that it would “make the most sense” for an “effective and revitalized Palestinian Authority to have governance and ultimately security responsibility for Gaza.” But he added: “If we cannot do that, there are other temporary arrangements that may include several other countries in the region. It may include international agencies that help provide security and governance.” But this is rejected by Israel’s right. They want Israel to have full security authority.^[xvi] The US does not want Israeli reoccupation of the Gaza enclave and will eventually force Israel out of the territory but not before its destruction.

The US is once again talking of the Two-State Solution. However, the US does want Israel to destroy Hamas at an acceptable price. The hard question is whether that can be achieved. Most analysts believe that is not possible.^[xvii]

Most importantly, though the US supports Israel, its long-term national interests diverge from it. While Israel views Hamas as an existential threat to be eliminated, the US does not. The Biden administration is trying to shore up an alliance against Russia, Iran, and China. While both the US and Israel want to evade a larger regional war, Israel is “willing to take more risks in pursuit of defeating Hamas”.^[xviii] Thus, the two allies differ on the endgame of the war. Given the global support for a Two-State Solution project, the US can be expected to go for it even though Israel does not want it at all.

The only solution to the conflict is the implementation of the universally agreed UNSC resolution 242 and UNSC resolution 338. A two-state solution can bring peace to the region. Nothing else will work. Gaza is an occupied territory that must attain its freedom. Despite the growing crisis, President Joe Biden has failed to restrain Israeli aggression. Despite global demands, he is not calling for a cease-fire in Gaza. Earlier, Biden called for eliminating Hamas and has reiterated time and again America’s deep commitment to Israel’s defence. Biden’s blind support of Israel is not a sensible foreign policy stance as it fails to take into consideration both the aspirations of the Palestinians and the interests of other regional actors.

A balanced approach to the Palestinian issue by the US and Israel can bring peace to the region. The US is no longer the preeminent global superpower and therefore must behave in that fashion. The Global South and many political groups in the West itself are now advocating permanent regional peace that can be attained by the establishment of an independent sovereign Palestinian state. It is about time. Self-denial on the part of both the US and Israel does not help at all. The Biden administration is trying to prevent the Gaza war from spreading further. However, it is not pressuring Israel for a ceasefire. Even if the US can achieve its objective, Israel is going to lose in the end. The world will hold the US as complicit in Israel’s war crimes. Likely the war shall galvanize the Islamic radicals in a manner unlike before. This time the world electronic media is showing the destruction of the Gaza Strip as never before. The barbarity of the Israeli strikes in the enclave has galvanized a global reaction as never before. Continued bloodshed and destruction of the Palestinians shall spell disaster for the region and beyond. Bold actions are required now to prevent that eventuality.

The previously neglected Two-State Solution is urgently needed to be enacted now. Only that can usher into regional peace. The people of the Middle East region deserve better. Peace and justice must be prioritized over war.

REFERENCES

1. George Wright, “Israel says the war in Gaza expected to continue throughout 2024”, BBC News, January 2, 2024 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67855117,  Israeli Military Signals New Phase in Gaza Offensive, January 01, 2024. VOA Newshttps://www.voanews.com/a/israeli-military-signals-new-phase-in-gaza-offensive-/7420661.html,  Israel expects long war, rotates troops, as Gaza death toll rises, DPA,  January 1, 2024 , https://news.yahoo.com/israel-expects-long-war-rotates-172833959.html, WAFAA SHURAFA, SAMY MAGDY AND MELANIE LIDMAN, “Fighting in southern Gaza city after Israel says it is pulling thousands of troops from other areas”, Associated Press, January 2, 2024 , Fighting in southern Gaza city after Israel says it is pulling thousands of troops from other areas (aol.com), Martin Belam  and Helen Livingstone , “ Israel-Gaza war live: Israeli military kills four alleged Palestinian militants in West Bank, IDF says”, The Guardian, January 2, 2024,Israel-Gaza war live: Israeli military kills four alleged Palestinian militants in West Bank, IDF says (msn.com)
2. George Wright, “Israel says the war in Gaza expected to continue throughout 2024”, BBC News, January 2, 2024 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67855117,
3. Fighting in southern Gaza city after Israel says it is pulling thousands of troops from other areas, AP, WAFAA SHURAFA, SAMY MAGDY AND MELANIE LIDMAN, January 2, 2024 , Fighting in southern Gaza city after Israel says it is pulling thousands of troops from other areas (aol.com)
4. Martin Belam  and Helen Livingstone, “ Israel-Gaza war live: Israeli military kills four alleged Palestinian militants in West Bank, IDF says”, The Guardian, January 2, 2024, Israel-Gaza war live: Israeli military kills four alleged Palestinian militants in West Bank, IDF says (msn.com)
5. Martin Belam  and Helen Livingstone , “ Israel-Gaza war live: Israeli military kills four alleged Palestinian militants in West Bank, IDF says”, The Guardian, January 2, 2024,Israel-Gaza war live: Israeli military kills four alleged Palestinian militants in West Bank, IDF says (msn.com)
6. Lyndal Rowlands, Alastair McCready, and Maziar Motamedi, “Israel-Hamas war live: Four Palestinians killed by Israel in West Bank”, January 2, 2024 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/1/2/israel-hamas-war-live-almost-22000-palestinians-killed-by-israel-in-gaza
7. Dan Williams, Nidal al-Mughrabi and Arafat Barbakh, “Israel’s aircraft and tanks step up strikes as it plans to reduce troops.”, Yahoo News/Reuters, January 2, 2024, https://news.yahoo.com/israels-aircraft-tanks-step-strikes-040504903.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
8. Israel-Gaza live updates: IDF says it expects war to last all of 2024, ABC NEWS, January 1, 2024 , https://www.yahoo.com/gma/israel-gaza-live-updates-idf-050335821.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall; George Wright, “Israel says the war in Gaza expected to continue throughout 2024”, BBC News, January 2, 2024 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67855117
9. Fighting in southern Gaza city after Israel says it is pulling thousands of troops from other areas, AP, WAFAA SHURAFA, SAMY MAGDY AND MELANIE LIDMAN, January 2, 2024 , Fighting in southern Gaza city after Israel says it is pulling thousands of troops from other areas (aol.com)
10. Ibid
11. Israeli Military Signals New Phase in Gaza Offensive, January 01, 2024. VOA News, https://www.voanews.com/a/israeli-military-signals-new-phase-in-gaza-offensive-/7420661.html
12. Martin Belam  and Helen Livingstone , “ Israel-Gaza war live: Israeli military kills four alleged Palestinian militants in West Bank, IDF says”, The Guardian, January 2, 2024,Israel-Gaza war live: Israeli military kills four alleged Palestinian militants in West Bank, IDF says (msn.com), Israeli Military Signals New Phase in Gaza Offensive, January 01, 2024. VOA News, https://www.voanews.com/a/israeli-military-signals-new-phase-in-gaza-offensive-/7420661.html,
13. CNN’s Mostafa Salem, Amir Tal, Shirin Zia Faqiri, Paul P. Murphy, Lauren Iszo, Gianluca, CNN, October 9, 2023, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/09/middleeast/israel-gaza-hamas-fighting-monday-intl-hnk/index.html
14. Foreigners, wounded set to leave Gaza, Reuters, November 01, 2023, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2444125/foreigners-wounded-set-to-leave-gaza-as-israeli-offensive-intensifies
15. Israel imposes ‘total blockade’ on Gaza as aircraft continue to pound enclave, Reuters October 09, 2023, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2440101/israel-imposes-total-blockade-on-gaza-as-aircraft-continue-to-pound-enclave Patrick Wintour , “What happens to Gaza the day after the war ends?”, The Guardian, November 6, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/nov/05/what-happens-to-gaza-the-day-after-the-war-ends
16. Ibid
17. Tarini Parti and Anat Peled, “U.S. and Israel Split Over Gaza Goals, Muddying War’s Endgame”, November 4, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-and-israel-split-over-gaza-goals-muddying-wars-endgame-9055c329

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