Trump’s tariff policy ignores downstream realities and the mechanics of modern energy markets. Pressuring Indian refiners might cut off the fuel supplies supporting Ukraine’s war effort, ultimately hurting Ukraine and undermining U.S. objectives.
This month, President Donald Trump imposed a 50 per cent tariff on Indian goods, warning that the levy would remain high as long as New Delhi continued to buy discounted Russian crude. Washington saw it as straightforward, practical geopolitics: punish the buyers, cut off the cash that keeps Moscow’s war machine going. But when it’s actually being used, the policy is awkward, counterproductive, and could even put Washington’s partners at risk.
India is one of the world’s most important refining hubs. The Jamnagar complex in Gujarat is the largest refinery complex in the world, while Nayara’s Vadinar refinery is India’s second largest. Together with the state-owned giants Indian Oil and BPCL, they form an export-oriented refining belt on India’s west and east coast ports.
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Russia has been a big player in this game. Since 2022, Russian barrels have been flooding into India at very low prices. Russia supplied about a third of India’s crude oil in 2024–25. India’s refineries are complex and designed to process heavy, sour grades like discounted Russian Urals and turn them into high-value fuels. In the 2023-24 financial year, diesel and petrol exports brought in about $33 billion, with diesel alone contributing $22 billion. Reliance Industries exported 21.66 million tonnes of refined products in the first half of 2025.
India’s diesel flows reach markets all over the world. The Netherlands, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, the United States, South Korea, and Japan are all major buyers, even though they’re currently at odds with Moscow. Even for Kyiv, Indian supplies have become critical.
NaftoRynok, a Ukrainian market analytics firm, reported that India supplied 15.5% of Ukraine’s diesel imports in July 2025—the largest single-country share that month, averaging about 2,700 tonnes per day. From January to July, India’s share rose to 10.2 per cent. Most of that fuel is transported via river from Romania and through Turkish terminals. Without this supply, Ukraine faces a real risk of energy shortages, which could disrupt military logistics, transportation, and even civilian electricity generation—making an already fragile energy situation even worse.
The Trump administration’s message is pretty clear: stop buying Russian crude or face consequences. But the policy fails to account for the realities downstream and the mechanics of modern energy markets. If Washington pressures Indian refiners, they might cut off the fuel supplies that are keeping Ukraine’s war effort going. Some European officials are concerned about how this will look and what it could mean. As one senior diplomat, who didn’t want to be named, said: “If you choke refineries that are selling to Ukraine, you are reducing Kyiv’s options. That is not a sound strategy.” Washington’s tariffs, which were supposed to be clear, might actually backfire and end up hurting Ukraine, punishing a partner, and undermining their own objectives.
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About the author
Alan Callow is a freelance journalist with experience in writing about the Asia Pacific region. He was born in Japan and graduated from Western Mindanao State University, Philippines.
