Abki Baar 400 Paar: The High Stakes and Unexpected Outcomes of the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections

The slogan “Abki Baar 400 paar”, caught on like wildfire, with even the I.N.D.I alliance talking about it. It was creatively placed as the BJP had successfully shifted the narrative of the opposition from defeating the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections to ensuring that the BJP and or the NDA does not cross 400 seats in the Lok Sabha.

In 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) campaigned with the slogan “Abki Baar Modi Sarkar,” focusing on anti-corruption and opposing dynastic rule. Their promise of “Achhe Din aane wale hain” resonated with voters, leading to a significant victory with 282 seats, up from 116 in 2009. In 2019, the BJP built on their previous success, leveraging the “Modi wave” with the slogan “Phir ek Baar Modi Sarkar,” and won 303 seats in the Lok Sabha. This victory was marked by the highest voter turnout ever in Lok Sabha elections at 67%, signaling a strong mandate for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. For the 2024 elections, the BJP has set even higher goals with the slogan “Abki baar 400 Par.”

The BJP has been known to set impossible targets and more often than not, achieve those targets in recent years. The voters and the BJP believed that 400 paar may be a reality. The Prime Ministerial candidate Modi stated that the public coined the slogan Abki baar 400 paar and amplified by the BJP. Throughout the campaign, the slogan helped the BJP candidates and workers to charge up and campaign aggressively.

The slogan caught on like wildfire, with even the I.N.D.I alliance talking about it. It was creatively placed as the BJP had successfully shifted the narrative of the opposition from defeating the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections to ensuring that the BJP and or the NDA does not cross 400 seats in the Lok Sabha. The slogan was able to shift the goalposts and the entire debate was on whether crossing 400 was possible. The impact was so high that even exit polls made it seem like the return of the BJP with a massive seat count of 400 was a no-brainer.

On election day, enthusiasm for the BJP’s campaign gradually diminished. As the vote count neared completion, the BJP secured 240 seats, while the NDA as a whole won 292 seats. Although this was comfortably above the majority threshold of 272 seats, the BJP was disappointed. In contrast, the I.N.D.I. alliance, with 232 seats, and the Indian National Congress, which secured 99 seats, were in a celebratory mood.

Despite the BJP and NDA forming the government, the victory felt hollow. For the I.N.D.I. alliance, even though they fell short of the majority mark, it felt like a significant achievement. The BJP’s ambitious “Abki baar 400 Par” slogan and the high expectations it created likely contributed to this perception.

As per different sources, the BJP did not reach out to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the ideological parent of the BJP, for electoral work. The question arises whether the “Abki baar 400 Par” slogan caused an increase in confidence, which may have led BJP candidates to forgo reaching out to RSS swayamsevaks. This remains a critical consideration.

The confidence of the BJP in securing a massive seat count post-election results may have affected their candidate selection. Hard-working karyakartas, who have proven their mettle on the ground have been replaced by defectors in many constituencies and this may have affected the campaign by local BJP workers. Initially, “Abki baar 400 paar“, successfully dominated the narrative and captured the imagination of both the supporters and the opposition alike. It renewed the enthusiasm of the BJP karyakartas and was to a good extent successful in curbing anti-incumbency. However, did the slogan cause supporters to not go out and vote, assuming a comfortable victory? Could the slogan and the resulting confidence have influenced realpolitik decisions decentralized candidate selection and political equation management? The election results provide answers to these questions.

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About the author

Siddarth Narayanan

Siddarth Narayanan is the Founder Director of Bharat Tech Foundation and a founding member of Kerala Young Thinkers Forum, a policy team based out of Kerala. He is also the CEO of a Socio-tech consulting firm based out of Bangalore in Karnataka.

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