While the events in the Middle East are being watched closely in different world capitals, they are also having a strong impact in South Asia, as is evident from some of the recent developments. India has managed to deftly navigate through global geopolitical uncertainty in recent years; however, it will need to adapt to the changing geopolitical landscape.
The geopolitical uncertainty and some of the important changes taking place in the Middle East are likely to have strong reverberations in South Asia. The instability in Iran is being observed closely in India, especially because of the growing uncertainty regarding the future of the Chabahar Port project (located in Sistan Baluchistan Province, Iran). This project, in which India has invested, is important for New Delhi both from a strategic and economic standpoint. Iran has said that it will respond strongly to any US attack – so far, Gulf countries and Turkey have warned against US attacks on Iran and said that they would not allow their territory or airspace to be used for any strikes against Iran. While the US has sent a naval fleet towards Iran, the US President on January 28, 2026, said: “A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm and purpose.” Trump also called upon Iran to negotiate a nuclear deal with the US and said that time was “running out.”
The West Asian nation has also threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz – Well over 40% of India’s crude oil imports and around 50% of natural gas imports pass through the strait. Even a temporary closure could lead to a massive rise in crude oil and gas prices.
Changes in the geopolitical landscape of the Gulf and its impact on India
For long, both the UAE and Saudi Arabia were closer to Pakistan, but over the past decade, due to the changing global economic and geopolitical landscape, the ties of both Gulf countries with India have strengthened in the economic and security sphere, moving beyond traditional areas of cooperation.
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In recent weeks, there has been talk of a Pakistan-Turkey-Saudi Arabia alliance akin to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NATO. While Pakistan and Saudi Arabia had already signed such an agreement, referred to as ‘Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement’ in September 2025, months after India-Pakistan tensions in May 2025, Turkey has also expressed its interest in joining such an alliance. It has been argued that Turkey, which is a member of NATO and has strong defence ties with Pakistan, is seeking to “hedge” at a time when NATO is facing question marks due to the growing rift between the US and its European members. The move towards such an agreement will be watched closely not just by Saudi Arabia’s neighbours in the Gulf – especially the UAE – but also by India.
In the meantime, important developments have taken place in the context of the UAE’s linkages with South Asia.
The UAE President, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, visited India for a few hours on January 19, 2026 and met with Indian PM Narendra Modi. This visit came amidst the deterioration of ties between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Both India and the UAE highlighted the strides made in trade after signing a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) referred to as the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in 2022. Important agreements were signed pertaining to several areas, including energy, infrastructure and Space. A letter of intent was also exchanged between both sides for launching a joint initiative to give a fillip to space cooperation between both countries.
Significantly, both sides also signed a letter of intent to upgrade ties to a ‘Strategic Defence Partnership’. India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri highlighted the point that India was not keen to become a party to the regional conflict. “Our involvement on the defence and security front with a country from the region does not necessarily lead to the conclusion that we will get involved in particular ways in the conflicts of the region,” he said.
India’s pragmatic approach vis-à-vis the UAE-Saudi rift
India, while giving a further push to ties with the UAE, has thus categorically indicated that it does not want to take sides in the UAE-Saudi tussle, given its interests in Saudi Arabia. India, apart from strong economic linkages, has strengthened security ties with Saudi Arabia, and there is a large Indian expatriate community in the country. India and Saudi Arabia also held a security dialogue on January 28, 2026. A statement issued by India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), after the 3rd India-Saudi Arabia Security Working Group, stated: ‘Both sides shared views on enhancing cooperation in current and emerging challenges to counterterrorism, including countering extremism and radicalisation, combating financing of terrorism, preventing use of technology for terrorist purposes, and addressing nexus between transnational organised crimes and terrorism.’
Days after his India visit, the UAE President announced that the Gulf nation was not keen to go ahead with an agreement for managing operations of the Islamabad International Airport, since it was unable to find a local partner for managing operations. This points to a new realignment where the UAE would move closer to India and distance itself from Pakistan, given Riyadh’s growing proximity with Pakistan
Conclusion
While the events in the Middle East are being watched closely in different world capitals, they are also having a strong impact in South Asia, as is evident from some of the recent developments. India has managed to deftly navigate through global geopolitical uncertainty in recent years; however, it will need to adapt to the changing geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.
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