The Union Budget 2026–27 must transcend mere accounting. From a Needonomics perspective, it should serve as a tool for human development, a catalyst for employment-led growth, and a bridge between economic efficiency and social justice.
The Union Budget is not merely a fiscal statement; it is a moral, economic, and developmental compass for the nation. This article undertakes a Future Anticipated Trends and Expectations (FATE) analysis of the Union Budget 2026–27 from the Needonomics perspective, emphasising the importance of pre-budget discourse rather than ritualistic post-budget analysis. It argues that unless budgetary priorities are aligned with genuine human needs—employment, equity, dignity, and sustainability—India’s aspiration of Viksit Bharat @2047 will remain elusive.
Beyond Post-Budget Ritualism
Traditionally, discussions on the Union Budget begin only after the Finance Minister presents it in Parliament. Such post-budget debates largely focus on which sector gained more and which received less, producing awareness but limited impact. These discussions rarely influence policy direction or correct structural imbalances.
In contrast, the Needonomics School of Thought (NST) strongly advocates pre-budget engagement, at least one month before the Budget presentation. This proactive approach enables policymakers to benefit from constructive input from academics, researchers, industrialists, investors, traders, and civil society. Though such consultations exist in principle, Needonomics as a think-tank framework remains largely ignored, resulting in persistent poverty, unemployment, and widening inequality.
Indian Paradox: Growth without Equity
Despite India achieving a nearly USD 4 trillion GDP, the benefits of growth have largely remained skewed:
1. While the top 10% of the population consumes nearly 57% of the GDP, the bottom 50% receives only about 13% of the GDP.
3. Poverty persists in absolute and relative terms
4. Youth unemployment remains alarmingly high
5. Informalisation of labour has deepened
This imbalance reflects the dominance of Greedonomics (economics of accumulation) over Needonomics (economics of sufficiency and human dignity).
Policy Context: Atmanirbhar Bharat and Amrit Kaal
Since 2020, the Government of India has launched multiple initiatives under Atmanirbhar Bharat and Amrit Kaal, aiming at:
- Poverty reduction
- Employment generation
- Women’s socio-economic and political empowerment
- Farmer welfare
- Development of backward and aspirational states
The Union Budget 2026–27 will be another milestone in this journey towards Viksit Bharat @2047.
Framework for Budget 2026–27: Sapta Rishi Vision
The Union Budget 2026–27 will probably continue to be anchored in the Sapta Rishi framework, first articulated in Budget 2023–24. Importantly, this is not a full-fledged election budget, as Assembly elections are limited to a few states—Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Assam, and West Bengal—along with some by-elections.
Based on trends from the past decade, the following priority areas are anticipated:
- Inclusive Growth– Focused efforts to eradicate extreme poverty and uplift marginalised populations above the poverty line.
- Infrastructure Expansion (PM Gati Shakti)– Large-scale investments in world-class infrastructure across urban and rural India to catalyse growth and employment.
- Green Development– Greater emphasis on Electric mobility, Renewable energy (especially solar), Carbon-neutral transport systems, and Environmental sustainability.
- Skill Development and Employment– Schemes for youth skill enhancement to address educated unemployment and reduce distress migration from rural to urban areas.
- Women Empowerment– Schemes for socio-economic and political empowerment of women, transforming them into agents of development.
- MSME-led Industrialisation– Incentive packages to promote MSMEs as engines of manufacturing growth, employment generation and ensure regional balance.
- Export Promotion– Leveraging Free Trade Agreements and diplomatic outreach to expand exports and strengthen foreign exchange reserves.
- Rural and Farmer Development– Special focus on agriculture and rural livelihoods, recognising that without uplifting 44% of the population dependent on farming, the goal of Viksit Bharat is unattainable.
- Private Investment Attraction– Further reforms and incentives to attract domestic and foreign private investment.
- Welfare of Unorganised Workers– Efficient operationalisation of the four labour codes to ensure social security, income protection, and worker dignity.
- Expectations of the Common People– From the citizens’ perspective, key expectations from Budget 2026–27 include
- Restoration of the Old Pension Scheme (OPS)
- Increase in Education Spending to 6% of GDP and fulfilment of the commitment to strengthen schools, universities and research institutions.
- Regular Government Recruitment, to reduce contractualisation and exploitation of rural graduates.
- Corruption-Free Governance for inclusive growth and justice for the poor.
- The Missing Link: Industrialisation and Employment– A fundamental weakness of India’s development path is incomplete industrialisation. Historically, advanced economies followed four stages that included Agricultural development, industrial development, service sector expansion and communication and knowledge economy. India, however, leapfrogged from agriculture to services and communication, bypassing robust industrialisation, resulting in jobless growth. Despite multiple industrial policy resolutions (1948, 1956, 1977, 1980), LPG reforms (1991), SEZs (2005), and recent initiatives such as Make in India, MUDRA, Start-up India, and PLI schemes, India’s manufacturing share remains around 14% of GDP. The government’s target to raise this to 34% is crucial. If achieved, it could generate nearly 100 million jobs, bringing India closer to China’s manufacturing-led growth model (39–44% of GDP).
- Agriculture, Inequality, and Rural Distress– Indian agriculture remains largely non-mechanised, the productivity remains low, and the majority of the farming is still subsistence-oriented. With more than 44% population dependent on agriculture and 85% farmers owning less than 1.25 acres, addressing these structural issues is indispensable for rural prosperity.
- External Sector and Global Aspirations– A strong external sector is vital for macroeconomic stability. India aims to
Increase global trade share from 1.7% to 3.5% by 2035, and to 10% share by 2047. There is a need to build robust foreign exchange reserves, inspired by China’s USD 3.5 trillion reserves.
Conclusion
The Union Budget 2026–27 must transcend mere accounting. From a Needonomics perspective, it should serve as a tool for human development, a catalyst for employment-led growth, and a bridge between economic efficiency and social justice.
If fiscal choices are guided by needs rather than greed, India can truly transform its demographic dividend into a human development dividend, paving the way for Viksit Bharat.
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