Snowless winters in Kashmir are not merely about the loss of scenic beauty or seasonal nostalgia. They signal a deep transformation in how the Valley functions as an ecological and social system.
Winter in Kashmir was once predictable. Snow would begin to fall by late December, deepen through January, and linger well into February and March. This rhythm shaped the Valley’s ecological and economic life.
However, today, that rhythm is breaking. Winters increasingly pass with little or no snow. When snow does fall, it is often brief and weak, melting almost as soon as it falls. What Kashmir is witnessing is not a temporary anomaly but a structural climatic shift whose implications are only beginning to unfold [1].
Over the last decade, snowless or snow-deficient winters have become more frequent across the Valley. Chillai Kalan, traditionally the harshest 40-day winter period, now often ends with bare fields, exposed slopes, and unusually dry air. Meteorological records from the western Himalayan region show consistent warming of winter minimum temperatures, particularly at lower and mid-elevations. Even a slight temperature rise alters precipitation, converting snowfall into rainfall and shortening the duration for which snow can persist on the ground. This change may appear subtle, but for a mountain system that depends on snow as its primary water reservoir, the consequences are profound [2].
The decline in snowfall is closely linked to global climate change. The Himalaya is experiencing what scientists describe as “elevation-dependent warming”, where mountainous regions warm faster than lowlands. As atmospheric temperatures rise, the freezing level moves upward. Areas which once reliably received snow now receive rain. This shift is especially critical for Kashmir, where a large proportion of precipitation historically fell as snow during winter months. Rainfall, unlike snow, does not remain stored in the landscape. It runs off rapidly, offering little long-term benefit to rivers, springs, or groundwater systems [5].
Another major factor behind snowless winters is the changing behaviour of Western Disturbances. These moisture-bearing systems, originating over the Mediterranean and West Asia, are the primary drivers of winter precipitation in the Kashmir region. Recent studies point to greater variability in their frequency, intensity, and trajectories. Some winters now experience prolonged gaps between Western Disturbances, resulting in extended dry spells during periods that were once reliably snowy. Even when these systems arrive, warmer atmospheric conditions often prevent snowfall at lower elevations, further reducing snow accumulation [4].
The most immediate and far-reaching impact of snowless winters is on water security. Snow acts as a natural reservoir. It accumulates during winter and releases water slowly through spring and summer. This gradual melt sustains rivers, lakes, wetlands, and groundwater. In Kashmir, where snowmelt contributes significantly to river discharge, the reduction in snowpack has threatened the stability of water resources.
Rivers such as the Jhelum now show reduced summer flows following dry winters. Springs, which supply drinking water to thousands of rural households, are particularly vulnerable. Many of these springs depend on slow snowmelt infiltration to recharge aquifers. With reduced snowfall, spring discharge weakens, forcing communities to depend on tankers or distant water sources. Wetlands like Hokersar and Shallabugh, which rely on sustained inflows from snowmelt, now face shrinking water levels, which ultimately has led to a threat to biodiversity in the region.
Agriculture and horticulture, long pillars of Kashmir’s economy, are also under growing stress. Fruit crops such as apples, cherries, and pears require specific chilling hours during winter to ensure proper flowering and fruit development. Warmer, snowless winters reduce chilling, leading to irregular flowering, lower yields, and declining fruit quality. Farmers also report rising pest and disease pressure, which thrives under milder winter conditions. Snowless winters also deprive soils of slow-releasing moisture, affecting rabi crops, fodder availability, and pasture regeneration. As a result, farmers now depend on irrigation during early spring, when water is already scarce [6].
The economic impact extends to tourism as well. Winter tourism depends heavily on snowfall. Destinations like Gulmarg and Sonamarg once offered reliable snow-based tourism, supporting skiing, winter sports, and seasonal employment for thousands of residents. In recent years, poor snow cover has forced the postponement of events. Tourist footfall has declined. For local communities dependent on seasonal tourism, such as hoteliers, guides, transporters, and small vendors, snowless winters mean lost income and growing uncertainty.
Ecological impacts are equally concerning. Snow regulates wildlife movement and forage availability. It shapes predator–prey dynamics. Reduced snow alters these systems in complex ways. Poor forage can push animals toward agricultural fields and human settlements. In forest-fringe areas of Kashmir, this intensifies human–wildlife conflict. Snowless winters thus deepen existing social and conservation challenges in the region.
Paradoxically, the absence of snow does not necessarily reduce environmental hazards. Increased winter rainfall can trigger sudden runoff events, erosion, and slope instability. Warmer winters intensify freeze–thaw cycles, which weaken soil structure and raise landslide risk.
The broader Himalayan context reinforces the seriousness of Kashmir’s experience. Across the Hindu Kush–Himalayan region, studies project continued declines in snow water equivalent at lower and mid-altitudes under current warming trends. While high-altitude zones may retain snow for longer, the loss of snow in populated valleys poses the greatest threat to human livelihoods and regional water security. Kashmir, with its dense population, agriculture-based economy, and reliance on snow-fed systems, stands among the most vulnerable landscapes [3].
Adapting to snowless winters requires both immediate and long-term responses. Improved climate and snow monitoring is essential to anticipate water availability and plan accordingly. Protecting and restoring wetlands, managing spring recharge zones, and investing in small-scale water storage and recharge structures can help buffer some impacts. Agricultural adaptation through crop diversification, soil moisture conservation, and efficient irrigation is increasingly necessary. At the same time, the tourism sector must reduce its dependence on snowfall by diversifying offerings and promoting year-round, sustainable tourism models.
Ultimately, local adaptation has limits. The rising pattern of snowless winters is rooted in global climate change, driven by greenhouse gas emissions far beyond Kashmir’s borders. Mitigating further warming remains critical to preserving what remains of the region’s snow-dependent systems.
Snowless winters in Kashmir are not merely about the loss of scenic beauty or seasonal nostalgia. They signal a deep transformation in how the Valley functions as an ecological and social system. Snow, once Kashmir’s silent guardian, stored water, moderated the climate, and sustained life long after winter ended. Its absence leaves behind uncertainty—dry springs, stressed farms, fragile ecosystems, and vulnerable livelihoods. The warning is clear, written not in white across the mountains, but in the bare ground left behind where snow once lay.
(Muskan Mushtaq is an intern under TRIP.)
(Edited and Mentored by Sneha Yadav)
References
- IPCC (2023). Sixth Assessment Report.
- IMD (2023). Climate Summary for North-West India.
- Pepin, N. C., et al. (2015). Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions. Nature Climate Change.
- Hunt, K. M. R., et al. (2019). Western Disturbances and Himalayan winter precipitation. Climate Dynamics.
- Jeelani, G., et al. (2018). Snowmelt contribution to groundwater recharge in the Kashmir Himalaya. Hydrological Sciences Journal.
- Dar, R. A., et al. (2019). Climate variability and apple production in Kashmir. Climatic Change.