The November 5 US elections is likely to be a close one and could swing either way. The US foreign policy is likely to be driven by ground realities and will remain the same on fundamental issues. Going by his election campaign and his previous tenure as President, Donald Trump could be more isolationist – especially on economic issues. Unlike Donald Trump, Kamala Harris is unlikely to ruffle feathers with allies and partners over economic issues, though she could be more vocal on issues of human rights and freedoms even vis-à-vis friendly countries.
The US Presidential elections will be held in a little over a week (November 5, 2024). In the latest poll conducted by Emerson College — released on Saturday, October 26, 2024, current US Vice President, Kamala Harris and Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump were tied at 49%. A poll conducted by the New York Times and Siena College from October 20 to 23, 2024 showed that Harris and Trump are tied nationally at 48 percent. The election is likely to be a close one and could swing either way.
Both candidates are going all out in the last few days of the election campaign and would be especially focused on the swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Several countries would be closely following the US elections. The question on everyone’s mind is regarding the approach both candidates are likely to take on key foreign policy issues, and how this will influence the global order.
Trump’s stance on key foreign policy issues
Trump has spoken about how he would use his rapport with Russian President, Vladimir Putin, to end the Russia-Ukraine crisis. On October 15, 2024, the Republican Presidential candidate and former US President said: “Look, I had a very good relationship with President Xi and a very good relationship with Putin and a very good relationship with Kim Jong Un,”
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He also remarked that, “Russia has never had a president that they respect so much”.
Trump has also said that he would not shy away from imposing tariffs — even on close partners like India. The former US President has dubbed India as a “big abuser” of import tariffs. He has also criticised the Biden Administration’s approach on key foreign policy issues. He has also said that, personally, he gets along with several leaders including Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Narendra Modi. Surprisingly, Trump has also spoken about his good terms with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
On October 15, 2024, the Republican Presidential candidate and former US President said: “Look, I had a very good relationship with President Xi and a very good relationship with Putin and a very good relationship with Kim Jong Un,”
There is an understanding, however, that despite Trump’s vocal views on issues, the fundamental foreign policy of the US cannot change – even Moscow has taken Trump’s statement regarding ending the Russia-Ukraine war with a pinch of salt. Putin himself has expressed cautious optimism regarding Trump’s comments on ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
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Harris’ posture on foreign affairs
Harris is likely to continue with a tough stance vis-à-vis China, but the major difference with Trump is likely to be the continued engagement with Beijing – irrespective of the strains. On the Russia-Ukraine issue, and even the current conflict in the Middle East, Kamala Harris’ stance is unlikely to be different from the Biden Administration . And apart from some minor differences, it is improbable that Harris’ approach vis-à-vis the Middle East conflict will be fundamentally different from Donald Trump’s. Unlike Donald Trump, Kamala Harris is unlikely to ruffle feathers with allies and partners over economic issues, though she could be more vocal on issues of human rights and freedoms even vis-à-vis friendly countries.
Unlike Donald Trump, Kamala Harris is unlikely to ruffle feathers with allies and partners over economic issues, though she could be more vocal on issues of human rights and freedoms even vis-à-vis friendly countries.
The recent BRICS+ Summit at Kazan (October 22-24, 2024) highlighted changes taking place in the global order. First, there seemed to be a consensus that the world is moving towards a ‘multipolar order’. Second, there was criticism of Western multilateral institutions and the need for reforms so that these institutions are in sync with the current global landscape was highlighted. Third, one of the priority areas discussed during the Summit was the need to trade in local currencies.
Neither Harris nor Trump are likely to be particularly happy with ‘de-dollarization’ and attempts of countries to circumvent US sanctions on Russia. Trump could, however, take a tougher position, with some of his advisers having already spoken about imposing sanctions on countries going in for de-dollarization.
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In conclusion, the US foreign policy is likely to be driven by ground realities and will remain the same on fundamental issues. Going by his election campaign and his previous tenure as President, Donald Trump could be more isolationist – especially on economic issues – and this may impact ties, in the short run, with some partners. Several countries would be eagerly waiting for the outcome of the US Presidential elections and hope that prevailing conflicts can be ended – so that the global geopolitical and economic situation stabilizes. Apart from this, they would also hope that Trump, in case he wins, is more nuanced and less unpredictable than he was in his previous stint as US President.
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